A Look Into FTC's Thinking On Pyramid Scheme Potential
By Branko Jovanovic, Pablo Robles and Jeremy Smith (March 23, 2020)
Recent decisions and resolutions issued by the Federal Trade
Commission have indicated features of multilevel marketing, or MLM,
companies that the FTC views as problematic.[1] For example, since
2014, the FTC has released complaints and stipulations that identify
aspects of Vemma Nutrition Co.'s,[2] Herbalif e Ltd.'s[3] and AdvoCare
International LP’s[4] business models that it views unfavorably.
Given the uncertain nature of regulation surrounding the MLM industry,
MLM companies are closely following these complaints and stipulations,
as well as speeches by FTC leaders.[5]
In December 2019, however, Ginger Jin, former director of the FTC’s
Bureau of Economics; Andrew Stivers, FTC deputy director; and Douglas
Smith, an FTC economist, unveiled a working paper, titled "The Alchemy
of a Pyramid: Transmutating Business Opportunity Into a Negative Sum
Wealth Transfer," that flew largely under the radar.
This paper, which explores the mechanisms through which an MLM firm
has the potential to become a pyramid scheme,[6] provides valuable
insight into the FTC’s attitude toward the MLM business model.
According to this paper, a company might operate an illegal pyramid
scheme disguised as an MLM when:
• At least some participation incentives are independent of any
retail demand (i.e., participants can make money without actually
generating sales to end-users); and
• The ultimate result is a negative-sum transf er mechanism,
meaning that the company causes an overall loss f or participants
through the transfer of money from one group of participants to
another.[7]
This article summarizes the paper’s assumptions, key messages and
policy implications in nontechnical terms.
The Paper's Findings
Jin, Stivers and Smith explain that the money-making potential of a legitimate MLM rests on
the existence of sufficient consumer demand for products to cover both the company’s cost
of making the products and participants’ costs of selling the products. While a company can
have a product with some consumer demand that generates consumer surplus (the
dif ference between the price that consumers pay and the price that they are willing to pay),
the company could still be a pyramid scheme if the overall costs to participants exceed the
total surplus generated through sales to end users.
Branko Jovanovic
Pablo Robles
Jeremy Smith
The authors create a model that accounts f or uncertainty around:
• Potential consumer demand for the MLM’s product; and
• The MLM participant’s potential opportunity to earn money f rom recruiting other
participants.
Using this model, they f ind that participants might be willing to engage in a negative-sum
transfer mechanism (i.e., make payments to the company for products they do not plan to
consume or sell) because they have inaccurate belief s about demand for the product (i.e.,
belief s about their ability to make money through retail sales), as well as inaccurate beliefs
about the existence of f uture participants willing to be recruited into the company (i.e.,
belief s about their ability to make money through commissions, bonuses, etc.).
The authors show that these expectations are crucial to a pyramid scheme’s success.
Inaccurate optimistic belief s about recruiting new participants could cause current
participants to accept a loss on retail sales in anticipation of making money overall through
recruitment.
If participants are willing to accept a loss on retailing the product because they are
optimistic about recruitment, then they are willing to personally purchase products from the
company that are unrelated to f inal consumer demand. While these purchases could appear
to be evidence of legitimate retail demand from an outside perspective, such purchases
contribute to the negative-sum transfer mechanism.
Importantly, their model implies that even if an MLM has a viable product that can be sold
for a profit, overly optimistic participants could still cause the average return across all
participants to be negative.
If an MLM can make its participants overly optimistic about their ability to make money
through recruitment, the MLM can raise the price of its products well above the price at
which supply for the products could be absorbed by f inal consumer demand (thus making
them undesirable to a large fraction of potential final consumers). However, participants
may be willing to continue losing money selling the product as long as they remain
optimistic about their potential f uture earnings from recruitment.
Implications for Policy
Policymakers must ensure that would-be MLM participants are not given misleading
information about the opportunity to earn money and recruit new members.[8]
If an MLM appears to be encouraging participants to make payments unrelated to f inal
consumer demand for the MLM’s products, f orcing structural change on the MLM could
benefit f uture participants. Jin, Stivers and Smith explain that regulators could deter an
MLM from causing negative-sum transf er losses for its participants by:
• Banning recruitment, as was imposed on AdvoCare;[9]
• Limiting rewards to sales directly fulfilled to nonparticipant consumers; and
• Removing minimum purchase requirements f or participants as a condition for
earning recruitment rewards.[10] This would stop participants f rom accepting a retail
loss in the hope of earning money later through recruitment. In practice, this would
end the minimum monthly personal volume requirements to receive
commissions/rewards.[11] The only purchases a company could require participants
to make would be an initial starter kit and annual renewal fee.
Assumptions That Could Overstate an MLM’s Potential to Become a Pyramid
Scheme
Jin, Stivers and Smith assume that participants are risk-neutral as opposed to risk-averse,
which makes them more prone to forming overoptimistic expectations. They also f ail to
account f or the so-called undo option offered by many MLM companies, in which
overoptimistic participants can return all products for a full ref und once they realize they
cannot earn money.
Both of these assumptions are questionable and may overstate an MLM’s potential to
become a pyramid scheme. Below, we discuss each of these questionable assumptions in
turn.
Assumption of Participant Risk Aversion
The paper assumes that MLM companies and participants are insensitive to risk (i.e., risk -
neutral). While risk neutrality is a standard assumption when modeling company behavior,
individuals (e.g., participants) are generally assumed to be risk-averse.[12]
While the assumption of participants’ risk neutrality greatly simplifies the model and might
not have a significant impact in the case of small losses, risk-neutral participants are more
prone to forming overoptimistic expectations about business opportunity payoffs compared
with those who are risk-averse. If participants are assumed to be risk-averse, they would be
less likely to join an MLM that could be operating as a pyramid scheme. Of course, if an MLM
were to exaggerate the recruitment probability, even risk-averse individuals could opt to
participate.
Failure to Consider the Undo Option
The FTC’s stipulation against Herbalife required the company to make changes to its ref und
policy to protect overoptimistic participants against significant losses, affording them an
undo option.
Specif ically, participants are entitled to a full ref und — including any taxes, f ees and
shipping costs — for any unopened products purchased within the previous 12 months. New
participants can also obtain a full refund for the cost of any startup package for at least
their first 12 months with the company, with shipping costs paid by the company if a return
is required.
Despite this protection, the undo option is noticeably absent from the paper. This omission
is surprising given that the undo option would seem to protect overly optimistic participants
from f inancial loss.
If a participant holds inaccurate belief s regarding the demand for an MLM’s product or the
probability of future recruitment success, then the undo option would allow them to return
all products they may have purchased in participating in the negative -sum transf er.
Although the participant would still experience an economic loss from participating in the
pyramid scheme when they could have been spending their time more productively, an
undo option would stem much of the harm caused to the participant and make it more
challenging for an MLM to continue perpetuating negative-sum transf ers.[13]
Conclusion
The key takeaway from the paper by Jin Stivers and Smith is that every MLM is in danger of
becoming a pyramid if its distributors have overly optimistic belief s about their ability to
recruit new distributors to the organization. Even though the authors do not take into
account the undo option and, therefore, might overstate the risk of a legitimate MLM being
classified as a pyramid scheme, the paper suggests that managing participants’
expectations related to their potential to recruit and earn money is essential to operating a
legitimate MLM.
While participants’ belief s regarding their potential success are at least partly outside of an
MLM company’s control,[14] certain mechanisms employed by MLMs can potentially lower
their risk of being classif ied as a pyramid scheme. In addition to of f ering an eff icie nt and
ef fective return policy, these mechanisms include recommendations outlined by Andrew
Smith, director of the FTC’s Bureau of Consumer Protection:
1. Ensuring that income claims accurately reflect income potential and account f or
participants’ expenses.[15]
2. Adjusting compensation plans so that:
• Only receipted sales to f inal customers are rewarded; and
• Certain rewards that encourage recruitment and are not directly linked to genuine
demand are eliminated, including:
o Minimum purchase requirements that can only be satisf ied through
distributors’ personal purchases';[16]
o Rewards available only to participants who recruited others;[17] and
o Rewards that increase exponentially with greater levels of expenditure.[18]
Branko Jovanovic is a principal, Pablo Robles is an associate and Jeremy Smith is a senior
research analyst at The Brattle Group Inc.
The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views
of the firm, its clients, or Portfolio Media Inc., or any of its or their respective affiliates. This
article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken
as legal advice.
[1] Multi-level marketing (MLM) organizations (also known as “direct selling organizations”)
are business enterprises that use a workf orce of non-salaried contractors to sell products or
services supplied by the f irm. Participants in an MLM business opportunity earn income
through commissions on their own sales and through sales made by participants that they
recruit.
[2] On December 15, 2016, the FTC announced that “Vemma Nutrition Company will end
the business practices that the FTC alleged created a pyramid scheme,” with a monetary
judgment of $238 million in f avor of the FTC. “Vemma Agrees to Ban on Pyramid Scheme
Practices to Settle FTC Charges.” FTC Press Release, December 15, 2016, Accessed
February 15, 2020, https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2016/12/vemma-
agrees-ban-pyramid-scheme-practices-settle-f tc-charges.
[3] On July 15, 2016, the FTC announced that Herbalif e agreed “to restructure their U.S.
business operations and pay $200 million to compensate consumers to settle Federal Trade
Commission charges that the companies deceived consumers into believing they could earn
substantial money selling diet, nutritional supplement, and personal care products.” FTC
Press Release, July 15, 2016, Accessed February 15, 2020, https://www.f tc.gov/news-
events/press-releases/2016/07/herbalife-will-restructure-its-multi-level-marketing-
operations. See also https://www.ftc.gov/system/f iles/documents/cases/160715herbalife-
stip.pdf.
[4] On October 2, 2019, the FTC announced that “Multi-level marketer AdvoCare
International, L.P. and its former chief executive of ficer agreed to pay $150 million and be
banned from the multi-level marketing business to resolve Federal Trade Commission
charges that the company operated an illegal pyramid scheme that deceived consumers into
believing they could earn signif icant income as ‘distributors’ of its health and wellness
products.” FTC Press Release, October 2, 2019, Accessed February 15,
2020, https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2019/10/multi-level-marketer-
advocare-will-pay-150-million-settle-f tc.
[5] For example, see the remarks delivered by Andrew Smith, Director of the FTC’s Bureau
of Consumer Protection, to the participants of the DSA Legal and Regulatory Seminar on
October 8, 2019. The excerpts of Director Smith’s speech are included in Plaintif f s’ Original
Verif ied Complaint f or Declaratory Judgment, Preliminary, and Permanent Injunctive
Relief , Nerium International and Jeff rey Olson v. Federal Trade Commission, Civil Action No.
1:19-cv-7189, The United States District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, Eastern
Division, filed on November 1, 2019.
[6] Former FTC Economist Dr. Peter Vander Nat characterizes a pyramid scheme in an MLM
context as follows: “An organization is a pyramid scheme if it rewards participants primarily
for recruitment, while the firm’s product is incidental to the proposed business opportunity;
moreover, the incidental nature of the product is chief ly evidenced by the payment of
recruitment rewards having no cognizable or substantive relation to retail sales.” Vander
Nat, Peter, “Former FTC Economist Calls f or Federal Pyramid Scheme Rule,” August 31,
2015. Last Accessed April 6, 2018. https://www.truthinadvertising.org/f ormer-ftc-
economist-calls-f or-federal-pyramid-scheme-rule/.
[7] A participant in an MLM company is an individual who (i) pays a membership fee or
purchases a sign-up package required for participation and (ii) by paying a membership fee
and purchasing a sign-up package, has the right to sell the company’s product and earn
compensation when participants they recruit purchase the company’s product.
[8] Director Smith spoke in detail about how MLMs should report its participant’s typical
earnings during his remarks at the DSA Legal and Regulatory Seminar on October 8, 2019.
Specif ically, Director Smith stated that MLMs should take into account participant’s costs,
include participants who did not earn any compensation, and stay away from truthful
testimonials made by top earners.
[9] On October 2, 2019, the FTC announced that AdvoCare International, L.P. and its f ormer
chief executive officer agreed to pay $150 million and be banned from the MLM business.
FTC Press Release, October 2, 2019, Accessed February 15,
2020, https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2019/10/multi-level-marketer-
advocare-will-pay-150-million-settle-f tc.
[10] Director Smith spoke about minimum purchase requirements during his speech at the
DSA Legal and Regulatory Seminar on October 8, 2019. He reinf orced that minimum
purchase requirements are problematic because they create incentives f or participants to
purchase products in order to meet earning thresholds instead of genuine consumer
demand.
[11] The minimum monthly personal volume requirements are a standard feature in MLM
compensation plans. Generally, this requirement sets a minimum amount a participant is
required to purchase over a set period of time in order to be eligible to receive commissions
on sales by participants that they recruited. The FTC’s stipulation against Herbalife states
that members interested in the company’s business opportunity “shall not be required to
purchase a minimum quantity of products,” with the exception of an initial start-up kit that
is not eligible for compensation. Similarly, the FTC’s stipulation against Vemma, an MLM
company alleged by the FTC to be an illegal pyramid scheme, prohibited the company from
offering payments that link or tie “a participant’s compensation, or eligibility to receive
compensation, to that participant’s purchase of goods or services.” AdvoCare Stipulation p.
7, https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/cases/161215_proposed_vemma_bk_stipul
ated_final.pdf.
[12] Risk-averse individuals pref er lower payouts with known risks rather than higher
payouts with unknown risks. In other words, they agree with the notion that “a bird in the
hand is worth two in the bush.”
[13] Director Smith spoke about MLM return policies during his speech at the DSA Legal and
Regulatory Seminar on October 8, 2019. Smith said that although ref und policies are
important, they are insuff icient on their own to rebut evidence that participants are
purchasing products for the purpose of reaching compensation thresholds.
[14] Director Smith f urther remarked that even truthf ul testimonials from top earners are a
“red flag” for the FTC, as of tentimes the earnings from these testimonials are atypical, and
thus the claims mislead consumers who believe that the stated outcome is achievable.
[15] Director Smith explained during his speech at the DSA Legal and Regulatory Seminar
on October 8, 2019 that f or earnings claims to be truthful and substantiated, companies
need to know and be able to show that af ter taking into account expenses, the income claim
is the generally expected achievement of distributors. He emphasized that MLMs cannot
make gross income claims without stating participants’ costs.
[16] Director Smith referred to these types of requirements as threshold rewards. An
example of a threshold-based reward would be a situation in which a participant earns
nothing until he or she reaches a threshold dollar value in product purchases, but once that
threshold is reached, his or her rewards increase exponentially.
[17] Director Smith emphasized that consumer injury is likely if participants are
compensated on the basis of recruitment.
[18] Director Smith referred to these types of rewards as convex rewards. For example, a
participant receives $5 if his or her group volume (the sum of volume purchases by the
participant and his or her downline) is 100, and $200 if his or her group volume is 1,000.
The reward to a participant with a 10 times higher group volume receives a 40 times higher
reward – an exponential rate of increase.
