SIGNATORY PAGE
Bruce H Bauck Rich Cowger
Bruce H. Bauck, Meteorologist in Charge Rich Cowger, Chair
Weather Forecast Office Missoula Northern Rockies Coordinating Group
Western Region Headquarters Montana Fire Wardens Association
National Weather Service Montana Disaster and Emergency Services Division
National Oceanic and Montana Department of Natural Resources
Atmospheric Administration and Conservation
Idaho Department of Lands
North Dakota Forest Service
Fish and Wildlife Service
National Park Service
Bureau of Indian Affairs
Bureau of Land Management
USDA Forest Service
Montana Fire Chief’s Association
Montana Sheriff’s and Peace Officer’s Assoc.
Date: 3/26/2024 Date: 4/4/2024
CHANGES
TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ANNUAL FIRE WEATHER OPERATING PLAN
Following are changes to the common section of the National Weather Service Northern Rockies
Annual Fire Weather Operating Plan.
• Added updated wording explain use of NWSchat 2.0 (Slack)
• Removed all mention of clearing index
• Added discussion to address proposal of discontinuation of LAL/Haines
• Otherwise, custodial updates
Northern Rockies Annual Fire Weather Operating Plan
Introduction 2
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS
Forecast Types 2
Forecast Dissemination 3
Forecast Element Descriptions 3
Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) 5
Fire Weather Planning Forecast 7
Smoke Dispersion Forecasts 9
National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) Forecast 9
Spot Products
Forecasts/Forecast Format 11
Forecast Example 12
Warning Products
Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning Definitions 13
Red Flag Conditions 13
Example Red Flag Warning (Bulleted Format) 14
Graphical/Grid Based Products
National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) 15
Interactive NWS (iNWS) 15
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
Fire Weather Customer Briefing Calls 15
NWSChat 2.0 (Slack) 16
Social Media 16
Incident Meteorologist (IMET)/Liaison/Training 17
NOAA Weather Radio (NWR) Broadcasts 18
Weather Information Management System (WIMS) 20
Interagency Agreement for Meteorological
and Other Technical Services 21
Weather Terminology 29
Lightning Activity Level Guide 31
Map of Fire Weather Zones 32
WS Form D-1 Spot Forecast Request 34
For Local Information See Individual Office Sections
Billings, Bismarck, Glasgow, Grand Forks, Great Falls. Missoula, Riverton, Spokane, NR GACC
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INTRODUCTION
The Northern Rockies Fire Weather Operating Plan is a joint effort between land management
agencies of the Northern Rockies Geographical Area, the Northern Rockies Predictive Services Unit
(PSU) and the National Weather Service (NWS) offices in Billings, Bismarck, Glasgow, Grand Forks,
Great Falls, Missoula, Riverton, and Spokane. The purpose of this plan is to coordinate the NWS and
PSU products and services provided to the land management community. Representatives of the
National Weather Service and the Northern Rockies Geographic Area will sign this document
annually each spring.
This Operating Plan contains a "Common Section" and an "Individual Office Section." The Common
section pertains to the products and services that are completed in a generally consistent and uniform
manner. The Individual Office Section contains information unique to each office such as contact
points, office location, and area maps.
FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS
National Weather Service (NWS) offices provide a suite of scheduled and unscheduled
meteorological products to support land management agencies. Scheduled products may include
daily planning forecasts, outlooks, discussions, and numerical forecasts. These are generally
produced for spring burning, wildfire season and fall burning. Unscheduled products include fire
weather watches, red flag warnings, and spot forecasts. These are available upon request 24 hours a
day throughout the year.
The Predictive Services Unit (PSU) will provide daily, medium-range, and long-range fire weather, fire
danger, and resource outlooks for use in tactical and strategic planning. These outlooks will
complement forecast products provided by the NWS.
The Billings, Bismarck, Glasgow, Grand Forks, Great Falls, Missoula, Riverton, and Spokane NWS
offices will issue detailed forecasts to fire control agencies in the area encompassing Montana, North
Dakota, portions of north central Idaho, northwest South Dakota, and extreme northwest Wyoming.
The descriptions of the fire weather districts can be found in the individual sections for each office.
Agencies served include: USDA Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, Bureau of Indian
Affairs, National Park Service, United States Fish and Wildlife in Montana and Idaho, Divisions of
Environmental Quality, the States of Montana and Idaho, and county and local agencies.
FORECAST TYPES
1. Morning and Afternoon Planning Forecasts
2. Spots
3. Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches
4. Updates to all scheduled products as conditions warrant
5. Numerical Forecasts for NFDRS
6. Smoke Dispersion Graphics
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FORECAST DISSEMINATION
• Narrative forecasts, numerical forecasts, forecast updates, Red Flag Warnings, and Fire
Weather Watches will be available on the Internet and will also be entered into the Weather
Information Management System (WIMS).
• Spot Forecasts will be disseminated via the Internet; backup will be phone and fax.
OFFICE BACKUP
Office
Primary Backup
Secondary Backup
Billings
Glasgow
Riverton
Bismarck
Glasgow
Grand Forks
Billings
Aberdeen
Great Falls
Grand Forks
Great Falls
Bismarck
Missoula
Duluth
Glasgow
Missoula
Great Falls
Spokane
Riverton
Cheyenne
Billings
Spokane
Pendleton
Missoula
Following are the Internet sites for each office:
http://weather.gov/billings
http://weather.gov/bismarck
http://weather.gov/glasgow
http://weather.gov/grandforks
http://weather.gov/greatfalls
http://weather.gov/missoula
http://weather.gov/riverton
http://weather.gov/spokane
https://gacc.nifc.gov/nrcc
FORECAST ELEMENT DESCRIPTIONS
Headlines: This section is included when critical weather elements are expected during the forecast
period. These elements include Fire Weather Watches, Red Flag Warnings, thunderstorms,
significant precipitation, unusually low humidities, gusty winds, etc.
Weather Discussion: The weather discussion provides an understanding of the general weather
pattern and its impact on expected weather. The discussion will accentuate the most important
portions of the forecast such as the problem of the day and important features of the next couple
days.
General Weather: Expected sky cover and precipitation events are the primary elements given in the
general weather. It may also highlight elements such as dry thunderstorms, winds, temperatures, and
humidities that are particularly significant to field personnel.
Lightning Activity Level (LAL): This is a scale of lightning or thunderstorm activity in a specific area
or over a forecast zone. The LAL is outlined in USDA Forest Service General Technical Report INT-
39 (October 1977).
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Chance of Wetting Rain (CWR): A percentage will be used to indicate the likelihood of a wetting rain
occurring in a specific area (or over a forecast zone. Wetting rain is defined as 0.10 inches or more of
rain over a major portion of the forecast zone. Chance of wetting rain (CWR) given on a spot forecast
indicates the probability of receiving 0.10 inches or more of rainfall over the smaller scale area
concerned.
Temperatures: The expected daily high and low temperature will be forecast in the range of values
i.e., "Highs today 82-92."
Humidity: The expected daily minimum and nighttime maximum humidities will also be forecast in a
range of values, i.e., Minimum RH 15-25%.
Slope/Valley Winds: Also known as surface winds, these are 10 minute average sustained winds
measured at 20 feet above the average vegetation (standard Remote Automated Weather Station,
RAWS) located at the lower elevations in a forecast zone (valley floor to mid-slope). Because these
may be highly variable across a forecast zone, they will be quite general in the daily Fire Weather
Planning Forecast.
Ridge Top Winds: These are the surface winds that would be measured by a standard RAWS
located at the higher elevations (upper slopes and ridge tops).
Mixing Height: Mixing height is a forecast of the altitude in which the atmosphere will be well mixed.
A mixing height forecasted in daytime periods will reflect the maximum height expected (early to late
afternoon). A mixing height forecasted in nighttime periods will reflect the lowest height expected.
Mixing height information will be given in Above Ground Level (AGL) heights.
Mixing Winds (also called Transport Winds): A measure of the average wind speed and direction
from the ground to the mixing height.
Haines Index: The Haines Index information will be included in the narrative forecasts. This index of
basic lower atmospheric stability and moisture seems to correlate well with large fire growth. One
note of caution, wind is not factored into the Haines Index. The Haines Index is categorized as
follows:
Haines Index
Category
2 or 3
Very Low
4
Low
5
Moderate
6
High
Extended Forecast and Outlook: An extended forecast (3 to 7 days) will be included with every Fire
Weather Planning Forecast. The outlook (from 8 to 10 or 14 days) is an optional element. An
extended outlook from 8 to 14 days can also be found at the Climate Prediction Center homepage.
The purpose of this guidance is to highlight major changes as well as general weather trends.
Note: For the 30/90-Day and Seasonal Outlooks, please go to the Climate Prediction Center
Homepage. These products are typically updated around the middle of the month.
***Please note, the NWS is aware of NWCG’s recent recommendation to remove LAL and
Haines Index from the fire weather forecast. The timeline for when this may occur is still
being evaluated, but no changes will be made for 2024.
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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
For a more detailed meteorological discussion than can be found in the discussion portion of the Fire
Weather Forecast (FWF), use the Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) which is located under the
Forecast/Outlook tab of the Western Region Fire Weather page. Riverton WY, Bismarck ND, and
Grand Forks ND in Central Region have their AFDs posted on their Fire Weather page.
The Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) is a semi-technical product primarily used as a means to explain
the scientific rationale behind a forecast and to summarize any watches, warnings and advisories in
effect. The forecast insight provided in the AFD is beyond that which can be found in other NWS
products, including the forecasters' confidence in various weather scenarios. The AFD consists of two
primary sections: (1) a narrative description of forecast information and reasoning, and (2) a summary
of public, marine and fire weather watch/warning/advisory issuances. The discussions focus on the
most significant weather issues to affect a forecast offices' geographic area of responsibility during
the 7-day forecast period. Emphasis is placed on those forecast periods where hazardous weather is
possible.
There also may be a Fire Weather section added to the AFD. This will specifically address fire
concerns and will be supplemental to the information in the main discussion.
Area Forecast Discussions for:
Billings
Glasgow
Great Falls
Missoula
Riverton
Spokane
Bismarck
Grand Forks
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Example AFD
ZCZC GTFAFDMSO
FXUS65 KMSO 172048
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
248 PM MDT Fri Aug 10 2013
.DISCUSSION...Southwest flow remains over the Northern Rockies as
a large upper trough circulates along the northwest coast.
Subtropical moisture continues to flow across Lemhi County and
southwest Montana this evening, maintaining the threat of isolated
thunderstorms through dark. Smoke, thick in places, will continue
to be an issue tonight and early Saturday. The upper trough will send
its first disturbance through the area Saturday. Convections will still be
an issue over southwest Montana and Lemhi County, but the main concern is
increasing southwest winds as the mid level flow increases. Stronger
winds will develop on the ridges midday. But probably not mix down to
the valleys until mid afternoon, then persist through the evening. One good
aspect to this is that it should improve air quality to some extent.
Sunday through Friday, models seem to be more consistent with bringing a
cold front into western Montana during the day on Sunday. The best shor
of moisture looks to impact northwest Montana, but all of western Montana
and north central Idaho should see some rain before Monday morning. The
bad news is winds will be increasing with the front. On Monday, the trough
moves to the east with some lingering precipitation. The Tuesday through
Friday, western Montana and north central Idaho remain under a west to
northwest flow with a few weak disturbances moving in the flow. This should
keep temperatures cooler with some widely scattered light showers.
&&
.AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms will impact aviation operations
across Lemhi County and the Butte/Pintlar region through this evening.
The main impact with there storms will be gusty and erratic winds. Terminals
affected are KSMN and KBTM. Smoke will cause lowered visibility and ground
obscurations throughout western Montana and portions of north central
Idaho this evening through Saturday. Please see appropriate TAFs.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Will issue a watch for the winds Saturday, mainly through
the central portions of the fire weather district. Believe stability
to the north and in the Palouse will keep winds from increasing too
much. Southwest Montana will get the winds, but the dewpoints should
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be pretty high tomorrow. Have included 110 in the watch due to slightly
better drying and the currently going fires. Southwest Montana will see
more drying Sunday along with another windy afternoon.
&&
.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Fire weather watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening
for Bitterroot…Deerlodge/West Beaverhead…East Lolo…Salish and Kootenai
Reservation…West Lolo.
ID...Fire weather watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening
for Clearwater/Nez Perce.
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST
The Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF) is prepared for use in operational planning decisions
including fire danger assessment, firefighter safety, protection of the public and property, and
resource allocation. It is a 7-day forecast but tends to focus on the short term, or next couple
days. The FWF is a general zone-based product consisting of a short weather discussion combined
with a few "public forecast" parameters (e.g. sky/weather, high and low temperatures) and several
"fire weather" parameters (e.g. Lightning Activity Level, humidities, Haines Index). The parameters
and format used in the FWF have been coordinated with area partners and may vary slightly between
offices. Please see individual office sections for more detail.
FNUS5i KNNN DDHHMM
FWFNNN
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for <name of area>
National Weather Service City State
Time-Date (example: 500 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2012)
...HEADLINE... (REQUIRED for Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches
...significant feature(s) at other times recommended)
DISCUSSION...(Concise, clear, non-technical explanation of the current
and forecasted fire weather.)
_________________________________________________________________
SSZXXX-XXX>XXX-DDHHMM- (UGC/FIPS CODING)
GEOGRAPHICAL DESCRIPTORS (Including land management governing units and
optional fire weather zone numbers)
Time-Date (example: 500 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2012)
RED FLAG WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE (as needed in each appropriate
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zone grouping)
.TODAY...
* Sky/Weather............
* Max temperature........
* 24 hr trend...........(Optional)
* Min humidity...........
* 24 hr trend...........(Optional)
* 20 foot wind...........(Optional - include sub-descriptors e.g.
* slope/valley...ridges/upper slopes...ridge * top...etc.)
* Haines Index...........(Optional)
* Lal....................(Optional)
* Cwr....................(Optional)
* Mixing height..........(Optional)
* Mixing winds...........(Optional)
.TONIGHT...
* Sky/weather............
* Min temperature........
* 24 hr trend...........(Optional)
* Max humidity...........
* 24 hr trend...........(Optional)
* 20 foot wind...........(Optional - include sub-descriptors e.g.
* slope/valley...ridges/upper slopes...ridge
top...etc.)
* Haines Index...........(Optional)
* Lal....................(Optional)
* Cwr....................(Optional)
* Mixing height..........(Optional)
* Mixing winds...........(Optional)
.TOMORROW...
* Sky/weather............
* Max temperature.......
* Min humidity...........
* 20 foot wind...........(Optional - include sub-descriptors e.g.
* slope/valley...ridges/upper slopes...ridge
top...etc.)
* Haines Index...........(Optional)
* Lal....................(Optional)
* Cwr....................(Optional)
* Mixing height..........(Optional)
* Mixing winds...........(Optional)
________________________________________________________________
.EXTENDED
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(Optional time period) Winds included days 3-5; days 6 and 7 if
appropriate; other elements per locally established policy. May be
in each zone segment versus this location; may optionally be
presented as 12-hour periods.
________________________________________________________________
=
$$
Forecast for next geographical descriptor and fire weather zone
group.
_______________________________________________________________
.OUTLOOK FOR DAY MONTH DATE THROUGH DAY MONTH DATE (per local
established policy - Days 8-14, 30 and 90 day outlooks when issued).
________________________________________________________________
SMOKE DISPERSION FORECASTS
Mixing height and mixing winds are optional elements in general forecasts during the spring burning
period, wildfire season and fall burning period. Some offices may also provide a stand-alone smoke
dispersion forecast at those times when a fire weather forecast is not being produced, i.e., early spring
and late fall. In addition, the Predictive Services meteorologists at the Smoke Management Unit compile
data and provide forecast meteorological conditions and smoke dispersion on a daily basis September
through November and March through May in support of the Montana Idaho Airshed Group.
See individual NWS Office/Predictive Services sections to determine what smoke dispersion
information is available.
NFDRS Forecasts
National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) forecasts are provided on a daily basis year-round.
Afternoon observations (1400 LDT) should be sent from the field to WIMS by 1415 LDT. These
observations will generally be received in the Forecast Office by 1445 LDT.
The forecasts will then be sent to WIMS by 1545 LDT. Forecasted NFDRS indices should be
available by 1615 LDT.
The NWS NFDRS forecast product (FWM) covers a 7-day forecast for select NFDRS stations. These
forecasts are for expected conditions at 1400 LDT each day, out through 7 days. An example of the
output, as well as an explanation of codes follows:
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FCST,STATION#,YYMMDD,13,WX,TEMP,RH,LAL1,LAL2,,WIND,,TX,TN,RHx,RHn,PD1,PD2,WETFLA
G
FCST: Indicates individual site forecasts.
STATION#: NFDRS site number
YYMMDD: Date
13: Valid Forecast Time (Always 13 to indicate 1300 LST)
WX: Weather valid at 1300 LST tomorrow. Valid entries are:
0 clear
1 scattered clouds (1/8 to 4/8)
2 broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8)
3 overcast clouds (more than 7/8)
4 foggy
5 drizzle
6 raining
7 snowing or sleeting
8 showers (in sight or at the station)
9 thunderstorm
(Categories 5, 6, 7 sets most NFDRS indices to 0.
ERC is the exception)
TEMP: Temperature in degrees F valid at 1300 LST
RH: Relative humidity in percent valid at 1300 LST
LAL1: Lightning Activity Level 1400 LST to 2300 LST
LAL2: Lightning Activity Level 2300 LST to 2300 LST
WIND: Wind speed in mph valid at 1300 LST
TX: Maximum temperature from 1300 LST to 1300 LST tomorrow
TN: Minimum temperature from 1300 LST to 1300 LST tomorrow
RHx: Maximum RH from 1300 LST to 1300 LST tomorrow
RHn: Minimum RH from 1300 LST to 1300 LST tomorrow
PD1: Precipitation duration in hours 1300 LST to 0500 LST
PD2: Precipitation duration in hours 0500 LST to 1300 LST
WETFLAG Y or N: Indicates whether fuels will be wet at 1300 LST.
Zone average trends can be used when enough observations are available for the zone area.
Following is an example of a Zone Trend Forecast.
ZONE,NO,YYMMDD,13,WX,TEMP,RH,LAL1,LAL2,WSPD,10HR,TX,TN,RHx,RHn,PD1,PD2,WETFLAG
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FNUS85 KBOI DDHHMM
FWMBOI
ZONE,403,011027,13,1,-3,0,1,1,0,0,,,,,0,0,N
ZONE,404,011027,13,0,3,0,1,1,0,0,,,,,0,0,N
ZONE,408,011027,13,0,4,-5,1,1,-3,0,89,68,75,22,0,0,N
SPOT FORECAST COMPARED TO DIGITAL DATABASE TOOLS
The National Weather Service is committed to making weather forecasts available in many different
formats to help fire agencies make effective planning decisions. Some of these tools currently
available are Point Forecast Matrices and the Activity Planner, and new tools will be introduced in the
future. However, for site specific tactical decisions requiring weather input, the Spot Forecast is the
only product that will ensure that a National Weather Service meteorologist has provided details
based on the site characteristics (aspect, steepness, position on slope, etc.) and local observations to
develop a more representative forecast.
SPOT FORECASTS
Spot forecasts will be issued for wildfires, prescribed burns, or other incidents when requested.
Requests for special forecasts should be made directly to the National Weather Service office serving
your area. Whenever a spot forecast request is sent, a phone call to the weather office should be
made to inform the forecaster of the request.
Please furnish the data indicated on the Spot Forecast Request Form to your local NWS office. This
form can be found on the Fire Weather Section of each NWS office Homepage. Where access to the
Internet is not available, WS Form D-1, Spot Forecast Request Form, can be filled out and provided
to your local National Weather Service office by fax or phone call.
Weather observations supporting a spot forecast request should be taken at the site of the incident,
fire, or burn. The quality of the forecast will greatly depend on the accuracy of this observation.
Observations taken the day of the planned burn are essential for a good forecast. In addition, if site
observations from the previous day are available, please provide these to the forecaster.
If weather conditions develop which are not forecast and may threaten the success of the operations
at the fire, the forecaster should be notified immediately. Timely feedback concerning the accuracy of
forecasts will assist the forecaster greatly in the preparation of more accurate forecasts in the future.
SPOT FORECAST FORMAT
1. Spot forecasts for wildfires will contain headlines (when a RFW is in effect), discussion,
sky/weather, temperature, relative humidity, and wind. Some optional elements may be
requested as well.
2. Prescribed fire spot forecasts will always include a discussion. In addition, these forecasts will
contain weather elements chosen by the requester.
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The spot page user guide can be found at the following location.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/UsersSpotGuide2019_2.0.pdf
SPOT FORECAST EXAMPLE
FNUS7i KXXX DDHHMM
FWSXXX
Spot Forecast FOR (location or name of burn)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE (CITY STATE)
TIME-DATE (500 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2012)
Forecast is based on request time of <time-date>. If conditions become unrepresentative,
contact the National Weather Service.
...HEADLINE (as needed for red flag warning/fire weather watches)...
DISCUSSION...
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.............
Max Temperature........
Max xx
Min Humidity...........
Min xx%
20 foot winds..........
xx mph
Optional elements......
Cwr, Smoke dispersion, etc., as
requested by users
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.............
Min Temperature........
Min xx
Max Humidity...........
Max xx%
20 foot winds..........
xx mph
Optional elements......
Cwr, Smoke dispersion, etc., as
requested by users
.TOMORROW...
Sky/weather.............
Max Temperature........
Max xx
Min Humidity...........
Min xx%
20 foot winds..........
xx MPH
Optional elements......
Cwr, Smoke dispersion, etc., as requested
by users
$$
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WARNING PRODUCTS
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES and RED FLAG WARNINGS
These products will be issued if red flag conditions are expected, in conjunction with critically dry
fuels. However, a RFW may still be issued without critically dry fuels with an exceptionally strong
weather event. The Predictive Service meteorologists and the National Weather Service program
managers will work in conjunction to assess the status of the fuels as fire season progresses.
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH will be issued if a significant potential exists for red flag conditions...
generally 18 to 96 hours in the future. Fire Weather Watches will be available in WIMS and the
Internet. Coordination with the Predictive Services Unit is recommended as well as a call to their
office during business hours (406-329-4703/4875) upon issuing a RFW.
They will often be issued in conjunction with the routine morning or afternoon forecasts. However, a
Watch may be issued at any time with the use of a Red Flag Statement (RFW) and the Fire Weather
Forecast (FWF) update. The area(s) affected, the time of the expected onset of the conditions, and
an explanation of those conditions will be included in the Watch.
Fire Weather Watches will be cancelled if and when subsequent meteorological information indicates
the red flag conditions are no longer a threat. This cancellation will be sent by a Red Flag Statement
(RFW).
A RED FLAG WARNING will be issued when red flag conditions are imminent or already occurring.
Red Flag Warnings will be available in WIMS and the Internet.
The issuance of a Red Flag Warning denotes a high degree of confidence that weather and fuel
conditions consistent with local Red Flag Event criteria will occur in 48 hours or less. Longer lead
times are encouraged when confidence is very high or the fire danger situation is critical. The warning
will be issued by a new statement (RFW) and reflected in the headline of the fire weather forecast.
The affected area, the valid time of the warning, and a description of the expected severe fire weather
conditions will be included. Fire weather watches and red flag warnings are coordinated with the
Predictive Services Unit.
A Red Flag Statement (RFW) will be used to cancel a Red Flag Warning and the Fire Weather
Forecast (FWF) will be updated.
Red Flag Conditions:
Red Flag Conditions constitute any change in weather that would result in a significant
increase in fire danger. This may include (but not limited to):
o Increased thunderstorm activity.
o Strong winds with low humidities.
o Abrupt change in wind speed and direction due to the passage of a cold front.
Please check individual office sections for detailed red flag criteria.
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RED FLAG WARNING BULLETED FORMAT
URGENT-RED FLAG WARNING
Natioanl Weather Service City State
234 PM MDT Tue Aug 10 2012
WAZXXX-310445-
/O.NEW.KXXX.FW.A.0001.100331T1800Z-100402T0300Z/
Fire Weather Zone Name(s)-
234 PM MDT Tue Aug 10 2012
...Red flag warning in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday evening for strong winds and low relative humidity for
fire weather zone xxx…
* AFFECTED AREA…This warning is for fire weather zone XXX.
* TIMING…Winds will increase Wednesday morning and become strong by
Wednesday afternoon, continuing through early Thursday evening.
Meanwhile, relative humidities will plummet Tuesday afternoon and
remain low through Wednesday with poor overnight recoveries Tuesday
night.
* WINDS…Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph can be
expected.
* RELATIVE HUMIDITY…Humidities between 10 to 15 percent can be
expected.
* IMPACTS…The strong winds and low humidity will combine to result
in severe fire weather conditions in areas where fuels are dry.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions are
imminent or occurring.
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Public Watches, Warnings and Statements: Watches, warnings, and statements of potential
severe or unusual weather events that are not directly related to fire weather are also issued by NWS
offices. These statements, however, may still contain weather information significant to field
personnel. Therefore, it would be beneficial to stay in tune with public weather forecasts.
GRAPHICAL/GRID BASED PRODUCTS
National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)
The National Weather Service provides an enhanced forecast tool called the National Digital Forecast
Database (NDFD). This database contains forecasted weather parameters on a 2.5 to 5 kilometer
resolution grid. The NDFD extends through 7 days and is updated continuously by the NWS Forecast
Offices. There are a number of different ways that information can be accessed from the NDFD,
ranging from viewing colorized maps on the Internet to importing the data into applications that have
been developed for use by land management agencies.
Actual NDFD fire weather forecast elements can be viewed graphically at :
http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/northrockiesFireDay.php#tabs
Information on the NDFD can be found at: https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/ndfd
For users who may be considering accessing NDFD information for use in other applications should
check the information at: https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/ndfd-information-links
iNWS
Interactive NWS (iNWS) allows National Weather Service partners, such as fire managers, to receive
NWS messages through SMS, mobile-enabled webpages, as well as email. Subscribers can choose
which NWS products (fire weather, severe weather, hydrologic, etc.) they wish to be alerted to and
also allows the user to define specific alert areas (whether by city, point or draw polygon) of interest.
Alerts will only be sent when an alert falls within the configured area of interest. If you are interested
in using this service, please visit the iNWS website (http://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/) and click register to
get started.
For questions relating to this service or assistance with setting up your account, please contact your
local fire weather program manager for further details.
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
Briefings
Predictive Services or NWS meteorologists may be asked to provide briefings to agency decision-
makers. The briefings usually consist of a short-term weather discussion of critical weather patterns
and a longer-term discussion of trends during the next several days. These are designed to provide
tactical (operational) and strategic (planning) information as needed for land managers.
Briefing schedules are determined by management priorities and therefore will vary with season, and
fire activity. These briefing schedules and conference bridge phone numbers will be provided as
needed.
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NWSChat 2.0 (Slack)
National Weather Service forecast offices are available to communicate and coordinate with partners
and media via NWSChat 2.0 (Slack). Each office has a local room available that is monitored on a
routine basis. A list of the office rooms is included below. Please check with each individual office to
learn about potential availability of additional fire coordination rooms. To register for NWSChat 2.0
(Slack), please use this link.
#wfo-spokane-wa, #wfo-missoula-mt, #wfo-great-falls-mt, #wfo-billings-mt, #wfo-glasgow-mt, #wfo-
riverton-wy, #wfo-grand-forks-nd, #wfo-bismarck-nd
Fire Weather Briefing Conference Calls
The National Weather Service Offices within the Northern Rockies Geographical Area may offer fire
weather briefings via conference calls for local land managers. The briefings include an informational
package containing data such as satellite images, weather observations, and forecast model data.
Please refer to your local servicing office's individual section, or contact that office, to determine if Fire
Weather Briefing Conference Calls are available.
Social Media
The National Weather Service offices use social media tools such as Twitter, Facebook and YouTube
to engage the public and our partners in conversation around important weather, water, and climate
issues. At times, fire weather concerns may be addressed through these venues, in addition to other
already established means. For guidance on how these tools are used locally, additional information may
be available in your local office's individual section.
Incident Meteorologist (IMET)
Onsite weather support to large wildfires, prescribed fires, and other major incidents is available. The
ordering process for Incident Meteorologists (IMETs) and supporting equipment is detailed in Chapter
20 of the National Interagency Mobilization Guide. Conditions of these dispatches are in the National
Interagency Agreement for Meteorological and Other Technical Services. When ordering an IMET for
a prescribed burn, specify 1) that the request is for a US Forest Service Prescribed Fire project; and
2) expected number of days the IMET will be deployed.
What Type of Prescribed Fire Projects are Suitable for IMET Support? IMET support for prescribed
fire is primarily for high-complexity projects such as those that are larger in size, have potential to
impact significant values, and may be longer in duration than the typical moderate or low complexity
projects. In some cases, the servicing NWS office may suggest IMET support for those locations that
have a history of inconsistent or challenging forecast accuracy.
Coordination between Incident Meteorologists (IMETs) and the responsible Weather Forecast Office
(WFO) entails direct telephone calls, NWS Chat (Slack), and on an as needed basis, conference
calls. Within NWS Chat, the gacc-northern-rockies-coordination-center room is the preferred chat
room for discussion as it provides a secure and non-public means of collaboration. It allows for
multiple IMETs and multiple WFOs to maintain a more fire centric stream of conversations. Detailed
weather coordination discussion in wfochat chat rooms in NWS Chat is discouraged due to the public
nature of the room. NWS offices in the Northern Rockies will be logged into NWS Chat at all times
17
and IMETs serving in the area are strongly urged to do the same as communications permit. Please
check with individual offices as they may have additional fire collaboration rooms available on
NWSChat.
In the event several IMETs are dispatched within a WFO’s area of responsibility and the WFO
determines collaboration needs to be increased beyond use of NWS chat, the WFO may host a
conference call at a predetermined time with the IMETs in the field to coordinate the details of the
forecast. In addition to the IMETs and the responsible WFO, this call may involve representatives of
the National Weather Service outside the WFO and representatives of the Geographical Area
Coordination Center (GACC).
Liaison
The Fire Weather Program Leaders (FWPL's) will visit a portion of their fire weather districts annually
for familiarization, liaison, and program coordination. FWPL's are open to discuss any forecast
problems, proposed prescribed burning plans in respect to weather needs, and any weather
anomalies peculiar to their area. Ample notification will be provided prior to any visitation.
Alternatively, FWPLs may choose to host agencies at their office or hold workshops to share
information about fire weather services.
Training
Fire Weather forecasters are available for training courses, workshops, and seminars. When
requesting a forecaster for these events, please give as much advance notification as possible. Per
Diem and travel costs will be billed to the requesting Agency, as outlined in the IMET/Fire Weather
Reimbursable Handbook or in the National Interagency Agreement for Meteorological and Other
Technical Services For the assistance of a forecaster, please contact the Fire Weather Program
Manager of your local servicing office.
There is a need for advanced notice for NWS participation with training or meetings. The longer lead
time to plan (several months ideally with 3 weeks as a minimum) the better chance the office will be
able to provide the service. The NWS Union Negotiated Agreement provides rules for scheduling of
Bargaining Unit employees that limits modification of the work schedule in the short term. In cases
where an office cannot provide the requested service, every effort will be made to find a backup
meteorologist from a neighboring NWS office or the Predictive Services Unit.
18
NOAA Weather Radio Broadcasts
The NWS offices provide continuous broadcasts of public weather forecasts and warning information
via NOAA Weather Radio (NWR), however, fire weather products are not included. The reception
varies and is limited to line-of-sight. The information received over the NWR should be used ONLY as
a supplement to the fire weather products prepared for your area. Listed in the table below are NWS
Weather Radio Transmitters and their transmission frequency. A coverage map can be found at the
following link.
Standard Nationwide NWR Frequencies (MHz) are:
162.400
162.425
162.450
162.475
162.500
162.525
162.550
Frequency
Area Covered
162.550 MHZ
Baker, MT
162.500 MHZ
Belgian Hill, MT
162.550 MHZ
Billings, MT
162.550 MHZ
Boise, ID
162.500 MHZ
Bonners Ferry, ID
162.500 MHZ
Bozeman, MT
162.425 MHZ
Broadus, MT
162.525 MHZ
Browning, MT
162.550 MHZ
Butte, MT
162.550 MHZ
Circle, MT
162.525 MHZ
Dayton, WA
162.400 MHZ
Dickinson, ND
162.475 MHZ
Dillon, MT
162.475 MHZ
Ekalaka, MT
162.525 MHZ
Forsyth, MT
162.400 MHZ
Glasgow, MT
162.475 MHZ
Glendive, MT
19
162.525 MHZ
Glentana/Opheim
162.450 MHZ
Grangeville, ID
162.450 MHZ
Grant Village, WY
162.550 MHZ
Great Falls, MT
162.450 MHZ
Hardin, MT
162.400 MHZ
Havre, MT
162.400 MHZ
Helena, MT
162.500 MHZ
Jordan, MT
162.550 MHZ
Kalispell, MT
162.550 MHZ
Lewiston, ID
162.500 MHZ
Lewistown, MT
162.525 MHZ
Livingston, MT
162.475 MHZ
Malta, MT
162.475 MHZ
McCall, ID
162.400 MHZ
Miles City, MT
162.400 MHZ
Missoula, MT
162.475 MHZ
Plentywood, MT
162.550 MHZ
Pocatello, ID
162.550 MHZ
Poplar, MT
162.550 MHZ
Rapid City, SD
162.450 MHZ
Ryegate, MT
162.450 MHZ
Scobey, MT
162.475 MHZ
Sheridan, WY
162.400 MHZ
Spokane, WA
162.400 MHZ
Twin Falls, ID
162.550 MHZ
Williston, ND
162.400 MHZ
Winnett, MT
20
WIMS STATION ID CONTACT
All Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS) have been assigned numbers to be used as the
identification number when entering into the Weather Information Management System (WIMS). If a
new station is established, or a present station moved, a new identification number should be
Area RAWS Coordinator.
The request should include:
• Station Name,
• Type of Station,
• State,
• County,
• Latitude/Longitude,
• Legal (township, range, section),
• Elevation, and
• Operating Agency
21
Interagency Agreement
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
WEATHER TERMINOLOGY
In general, terms used in fire-weather discussion and summaries are plain language 'dictionary'
words. There are, however, a few terms which have a meteorological connotation not covered by the
standard dictionary definition. These are defined below:
Advection: The transfer of atmospheric properties by horizontal movement of air. Most commonly
used in reference to transfer of warmer or colder air.
Dry Thunderstorm: A lightning storm accompanied by less than a wetting rain, 0.10 inch
precipitation or less, often with very gusty winds.
Front: (cold, warm, or stationary) A zone of temperature and density discontinuity between two air
masses.
Gradient: (pressure gradient) Change of value of the atmospheric pressure per unit of distance. The
greater the change per unit of distance, the stronger the gradient, and the stronger the winds.
High: An area of high-atmospheric pressure delineated by closed isobars.
Instability: (unstable air mass) A state in which the vertical distribution of temperature is such that an
air particle, if given either an upward or downward impulse, will tend to move away with increasing
speed from its original level. Thunderstorm development would be an example of an unstable air
mass.
Low: (depression, cell, disturbance) An area of low atmospheric pressure delineated by closed
isobars (lines of equal pressure).
Low Aloft: (cold low, cold low aloft, upper-level low) Same as low above, except occurring in the
upper atmosphere and characterized by moist, unstable and abnormally cooler temperatures aloft.
Ridge: (high-pressure ridge) An elongated area of relatively high atmospheric pressure.
Ridge Aloft: The same as ridge but occurring in the upper atmosphere. When a ridge is strong and
persistent, it is often associated with warm and dry subsiding air.
Stability: (stable air mass) A state in which the vertical distribution of temperature is such that an air
particle will resist displacement from its level. An inversion is an example of a very stable condition.
Subsidence: (subsiding air) A descending motion of air in the atmosphere.
30
Temperature Inversion: (inversion) A layer in which the temperature increases with
altitude.
Thermal low: (heat low) A low pressure system caused by intensive heating at the
earth's surface. Not associated with frontal systems. Occurs under high-pressure aloft
and remains stationary.
Trough (Trof): An elongated area of relatively low atmospheric pressure. The axis of a
trough is the trough line. Fronts are often located in the trough line at the surface.
Upper-level Trough: (upper trough, trough aloft) A pressure trough existing in the
upper atmosphere.
31
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL GUIDE
The lightning activity level guide for observers describes clouds, storm and lightning
frequency criteria for classifying lightning events. Because the objective is to describe
the lightning activity, lightning counts take precedence over the cloud-storm-rain
narrative description. For instance, if the clouds should fit the LAL 3 descriptive criteria,
but the lightning averages three cloud-to-ground discharges per minute, the LAL should
be classified as a 4.
Also included in the lightning activity level guide for observers is the relative frequency
of occurrence of the various LAL. For instance, LAL 6 is a rare event not likely to occur
on more than 1 or 2 percent of the lightning days.
The observation of lightning (the LAL) should include what has happened within a 25 to
30-mile radius of the station.
The fire weather observer must obtain as much information as possible from all
available sources to insure an accurate LAL observation. The fire weather forecaster
has other sources of information on thunderstorm activity, and therefore, should be
consulted if there is confusion over the selection of an LAL.
Lightning Activity Level Guide for Weather Observers
Individual Storm Cell Cloud to
Ground Lightning Discharge
(cg)
LAL
Cloud & Storm Development
Countsc
g/5 min
Countsc
g/15 min
Avg.cg/
min
%
ofT-stor
mDays
1
No T-storms
-
-
-
--
2
Cumulus clouds are common but only a few reach
the towering cumulus stage. A single thunderstorm
must be confirmed in the observation area. The
clouds produce mainly virga, but light rain will
occasionally reach the ground. Lightning is very
infrequent.
1-5
1-8
10
3
Towering cumulus covers less than two-tenths of
the sky. Thunderstorms are few, but two to three
must occur within the observation area. Light to
moderate rain will reach the ground, and lighting is
infrequent.
6-10
9-15
1-2
35
4
Towering cumulus covers two to three-tenths of the
sky. Thunderstorms are scattered and more than
three must occur within the observation area.
Moderate rain is common and lightning is frequent.
11-15
16-25
2-3
35
5
Towering cumulus and thunderstorms are
numerous. They cover more than three-tenths and
occasionally obscure the sky. Rain is moderate to
heavy and lightning is frequent and intense.
>15
>25
>3
18
6
Similar to LAL 3 except thunderstorms are dry.
<2
Map of NWS Fire Weather Zones
Map of Northern Rockies GACC PSAs
Spot Request Form
WS FORM D-1 U.S. Department of Commerce
(1-2005) SPOT REQUEST NOAA
(Supersedes Previous Editions) (See reverse for instructions) National Weather Service
Please call the NWS Weather Forecast Office (WFO) when submitting a request and also after you receive a forecast to ensure request
and forecast were received.
Please provide feedback to WFO on forecast.
1. Time†
2. Date
3. Name of Incident or Project
4. Requesting Agency
5. Requesting Official
6. Phone Number
7. Fax Number
8. Contact Person
9. Ignition/Incident Time and Date
12. Reason for Spot Request (choose one only)
o Wildfire
o Non-Wildfire Under the Interagency
Agreement for Meteorological Services
(USFS, BLM, NPS, USFWS, BIA)
o Non-Wildfire State, tribal or local fire
agency working in coordination with a
federal participant in the Interagency
Agreement for Meteorological Services
o Non-Wildfire Essential to public safety, e.g.
due to the proximity of population centers or
critical infrastructure.
13. Latitude/Longitude:
10. Size (Acres)
14. Elevation (ft, Mean Sea Level)
Top: Bottom:
11. Type of Incident
o Wildfire
o Prescribed Fire
o Wildland Fire Use (WFU)
o HAZMAT
o Search And Rescue (SAR)
15. Drainage
16. Aspect
17. Sheltering
o Full
o Partial
o Unsheltered
18. Fuel Type: Grass Brush Timber Slash Grass/Timber Understory Other___________________
Fuel Model: 1,2,3 4,5,6,7 8,9,10 11,12,13 2,5,8
19. Location and name of nearest weather observing station (distance & direction from project):
20. Weather Observations from project or nearby station(s): (Winds should be in compass direction e.g. N, NW, etc.)
Place
Elevation
†Ob
Time
20 ft. Wind
Dir Speed
Eye Level
Wind.
Dir Speed
Temp.
Dry Wet
Moisture
RH DP
Remarks
(Relevant Weather, etc)
21. Requested Forecast Period
Date
Start ____________
End ____________
Forecast needed for:
o Today
o Tonight
o Day 2
o Extended
22. Primary Forecast Elements (Check all that are needed)
(for management ignited wildland fires, provide prescription
parameters):
Needed:
Sky/Weather __
Temperature __
Humidity __
20 ft Wind __
Valley __
Ridge Top __
Other (Specify in #23) __
23. Remarks (other needed forecast elements,
forecast needed for specific time, etc.)
24. Send Forecast to:
ATTN:
25. Location:
26. Phone Number:
Fax Number:
27. Remarks (Special requests, incident details, Smoke Dispersion elements needed, etc.):
EXPLANATION OF SYMBOLS: † Use 24-hour clock to indicate time. Example: 10:15 p.m. = 2215; 10:15 a.m. = 1015
Indicate local standard time or local daylight time
WS FORM D-1
WS FORM D-1, January 2005 INSTRUCTIONS:
I. Incident Personnel:
1. Complete items 1 through 27 where applicable.
a. Example of weather conditions on site:
13. Weather Observations from project or nearby station(s):
Place
Elevation
†Ob
Time
20 ft. Wind
Eye Level Wind.
Temp.
Moisture
Remarks
(Relevant Weather, etc.)
Dir
Speed
Dir
Speed
Dry
Wet
RH
DP
Unit G-50
1530'
0830
NW
6-8
NW
3-5
32
72
Observations from unit
RAWS station, 50%
cloud cover.
b. If the incident (HAZMAT, SAR) involves marine, put the wave/swell
height and
direction in the Remarks section.
2. Transmit in numerical sequence or fax to the appropriate Weather Forecast
Office. (A weather
forecaster on duty will complete the special forecast as quickly as possible and
transmit the forecast and outlook to you by the method requested)
3. Retain completed copy for your records.
4. Provide feedback to NWS utilizing separate page. Be sure to include a
copy of the spot forecast
with any feedback submission including forecaster’s name. Feedback to
NWS personnel is
imperative to assist with future forecasts. Remember, feedback on correct
forecasts is equally as
valuable as feedback on incorrect forecasts! If spot forecast is significantly
different than conditions on site, a second forecast may be required.
II. ALL RELAY POINTS should use this form to insure completeness of date and
forecast. A supply of this form should be kept by each dispatcher and all others
who may be relaying requests for forecasts or relaying completed forecasts to field
units.
III. Forms are available from your local National Weather Service Weather
Forecast Office. They may also be reproduced by other agencies as needed, entering
the phone number and radio identification if desired.
NOTICE: Information provided on this form may be used by the National Weather
Service for official purposes in any way, including public release and publication in
NWS products. False statements on this form may be subject to prosecution under the
False Statement Accountability Act of 1996 (18 U.S.C. § 1001) or other statutes.
Billings
2024 NWS Billings Weather Office
NOTE: This information describes Billings Fire Weather support for the Northern Rockies
Geographic Area. Most of the information is the same for the Rocky Mountain Area support.
There are a few differences, especially for Red Flag Criteria. Please refer to the Rocky Mountain
Area operation plan for Billings Fire Weather support to portions of northern Wyoming.
Location
The National Weather Service (NWS) office in Billings, Montana is located on the west end of
Billings near Interstate 90 exit 446. The mailing address is:
National Weather Service
2170 Overland Avenue
Billings, MT 59102-6455
Contact Information
John Wetenkamp Nick Vertz
Meteorologist In Charge Warning Coordination Meteorologist
Shawn Palmquist
Incident Meteorologist
Fire Weather Program Leader
Contact Information and Internet Addresses
Office: (406) 652-0851 Fax: (406) 652-3214
General Weather Information: https://weather.gov/Billings
Fire Weather Information: https://weather.gov/wrh/fire?wfo=byz#
Spot Forecasts https://weather.gov/spot
Operational Hours
The office is staffed 24x7x365 with meteorologists certified to handle Fire Weather requests.
Additional staff are usually available to support multiple requests in a timely manner. The office
has one (1) certified Incident Meteorologist (IMET) available for onsite support to large
wildfires, prescribed fires, and other major incidents.
Fire Weather Forecast Issuance Times (Dates may be adjusted according to user needs)
Early spring thru June (for prescribed burn support) Mornings Daily 0700
July thru September (for wildfire support) Mornings Daily 0700
Afternoons Daily 1530
October thru November (for prescribed burn support) Mornings Daily 0700
Forecast Services
Fire Weather Forecasts, site specific Spot Forecasts, Red Flag Warnings, and Fire Weather
Watches will generally follow the format as defined in the Fire Weather Products Section of the
Northern Rockies Annual Operating Plan. These products are issued on a routine basis through
the season. Smoke Dispersion information is available upon request for verbal briefings or through
spot requests. Additional Smoke Dispersion information is available on the Fire Weather webpage.
Non-routine or unscheduled products may be issued at any time as weather conditions can and do
change rapidly. The various affected dispatch offices in the Billings Fire Weather district will be
alerted by telephone should this need occur.
Red Flag Criteria
Anytime the forecaster foresees a change in weather that would result in a significant increase in
fire danger.
For Very High or Extreme Fire Dangers:
1. Scattered dry thunderstorms. (A lightning storm accompanied by less than a wetting
rain, 0.10 inch precipitation or less, often with very gusty winds).
2. Increased thunderstorm activity, wet or dry, during an extremely dry period.
3. A combination of low relative humidity and increasing strong or gusty surface winds,
or abrupt change in direction due to the approach and passage of a cold front, squall line,
or other weather phenomena other than isolated thunderstorms.
Red Flag conditions may occur with High Fire Danger:
(Generally requires much lower RH and stronger wind thresholds than Very High or
Extreme Fire Danger)
Note: Red Flag criteria for humidity and winds for Wyoming fire zones 274 and 284
(Rocky Mountain Area) are explicit with regards to winds and relative humidity and are
as follows: Relative Humidity of 15% or less in combination with winds gusting to
25 mph or greater.
Determining if Red Flag Criteria is Met:
The transition from Peak Fire Season (typically June through October) to the Off-Season, or vice
versa will occur in coordination with our fire partners.
Peak Fire Season (typically June through October):
Very High or Extreme Fire Danger:
Red Flag Warnings for Winds and RH will be considered verified when sustained winds
are observed at 15 mph or higher, or Gusts of 25 mph or higher, combined with an RH of
20 percent or lower for three observations within, or near the border of, a given zone. The
three observations can be from one sensor or multiple sensors, but must encompass 3
separate hours out of a consecutive 8 hour period.
High Fire Danger:
Red Flag Warnings for Winds and RH will be considered verified when sustained winds
are observed at 25 mph or higher, or Gusts of 40 mph or higher, combined with an RH of
15 percent or lower for three observations within, or near the border of, a given zone. The
three observations can be from one sensor or multiple sensors, but must encompass 3
separate hours out of a consecutive 8 hour period.
Off-Season:
General guidelines will be considered during “non fire season” periods as opposed to strict
usage of Fire Danger Ratings. The greater threat during this period is for rangeland and
grass fuels to be dry and available for consumption whereas forested areas may not be as
stressed. Consideration will be given to recent precipitation and dryness trends including
extended periods without snow cover and a lack of recent moisture (example: less than .10
previous 5 days).
Should unseasonal dryness be present, Red Flag Warnings for winds and relative humidity
will be considered verified when sustained winds are observed at 40 mph or higher, or
Gusts of 58 mph or higher, combined with an RH of 40 percent or lower for 3 observations
within, or near the border of, a given zone. The three observations can be from one sensor
or multiple sensors, but must encompass 3 separate hours out of a consecutive 8 hour
period.
Events that do not meet these criteria may warrant the issuance of a Rangeland Fire Danger
Statement (see below).
Rangeland Fire Danger Statements (RFD)
During the spring, fall and winter months, open burning can become a concern for local safety
officials when dry and windy conditions are expected but Red Flag criteria will not be met. In
order to support county officials for these sub Red Flag warning level events, a RFD will be
issued to provide information on rangeland and/or grassland fire potential. This will assist local
officials in planning local open burning restrictions and bans. The RFD will be event driven;
issued only when a combination of dead fuels, dry weather, gusty winds, above normal
temperatures and low relative humidity combine to produce grassland fire concerns.
Here is an example of a RFD.
Fire Weather Briefings and Notification Emails
If conditions warrant, weekly fire briefings will be scheduled. Briefings will be a recap of
climate trends over the past week, a detailed look at the next 7 days (precip, temps, humidity,
winds,etc) and the 8-14 day outlook. Additional briefings can be held as requested.
If briefings are held, notification and briefing details will be disseminated to users through phone
calls and emails. Emails may periodically be sent to provide overviews of upcoming weather
events which will have high fire impacts.
If you are not receiving these emails please contact the National Weather Service.
Support of Land Management and State and County Fire Restriction Coordination
The National Weather Service office in Billings participates in fire restriction calls (as needed)
for south central and eastern Montana. We support these calls by providing briefings to the
agencies a few days ahead of the calls so fire personnel and county elected officials have weather
information to support restrictions decisions. On the calls, we summarize the information and are
ready to answer any questions or concerns.
Training Services
The office has a cadre of meteorologists that may be available to handle fire weather training
requests. Refer all training requests or technical support questions to the Warning Coordination
Meteorologist or those listed in the Contact Information section.
Agencies Served
The Billings National Weather Service Office serves a diverse variety of Federal and State users
in Montana, a small portion of northwest South Dakota and north central Wyoming. The Federal
Agencies include:
1. United States Forest Service
Custer Gallatin Bighorn (WY)
2. Bureau of Land Management
Billings…Casper and Miles City Offices
3. Bureau of Indian Affairs (Reservations)
Crow Northern Cheyenne
4. National Wildlife Refuges
Lake Mason Hailstone Halfbreed
5. National Park Service
Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area
Little Bighorn National Battlefield
6. Wilderness Areas
Lee Metcalf Absaroka Beartooth
7. Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation
Multiple State Lands Offices
8. Sheridan County Wyoming Fire Protection Districts
Counties Served
Big Horn, Carbon, Carter, Custer, Fallon, Golden Valley, Musselshell, Park, Powder River,
Rosebud, Stillwater, Sweet Grass, Treasure, Wheatland, Yellowstone and Harding (South
Dakota) Gallatin (Portion that contains the Gallatin National Forest) and Sheridan, WY along
with portions of Big Horn WY, Washakie WY and Johnson WY which are within the Bighorn
NF boundaries.
Fire Weather Zones
The Billings Fire Weather District covers Region 1 Zones 123 through 133 and Region 2 Zones
274 (Sheridan County) and 284 (Bighorn National Forest). This covers most of the southern half
of Montana, Harding County in western South Dakota, and portions of North Central Wyoming.
Forecast Zone Descriptions
Zone 123:
South Central Montana includes all the Gallatin National Forest, Lee Metcalf Wilderness
Lands, Butte District of the BLM, and Montana state lands. The area starts at the point
where Montana, Idaho, and the Yellowstone National Park share a common point south of
West Yellowstone, Montana, then north along the western portion of the Gallatin National
Forest, including the Lee Metcalf Wilderness, through Bozeman, and north along the forest
boundary to Sixteen Mile Creek along the Meagher and Gallatin County border, then east
along the Meagher, Gallatin and Park county border, then around the Crazy Mountain
portion of the Gallatin National Forest boundary to the Sweet Grass County border, then
south to the Gallatin Forest boundary, then east and south along the Gallatin and Custer
National Forests boundaries to the Montana and Wyoming state border, then west to the
Yellowstone National Park boundary, then following the Yellowstone National Park
boundary to the beginning point south of West Yellowstone, Montana.
Zone 124:
South Central Montana including portions of the Miles City District of the BLM, and
Montana state lands. The area consists of Wheatland Sweet Grass counties in Montana,
excluding portions of the Gallatin National Forest and the Lewis and Clark National Forest
within those counties.
Zone 125:
South Central Montana including portions of the Miles City District BLM, Montana state
lands, the Hailstone National Wildlife Refuge, and the Halfbreed Lake National Wildlife
Refuge. The area is bounded on all sides by Stillwater County in Montana, excluding that
portion of the Custer National Forest within Stillwater County.
Zone 126:
South Central Montana area that includes portions of the Custer National Forest, Miles
City District of the BLM, and Montana state lands. This area begins where the Western
boundary of the Custer National Forest, Beartooth Ranger District, intersects the Montana
State border east of Cooke City, Montana near Mt. Rearguard, then follow the boundary
between the Gallatin and Custer National Forests north around the Custer National Forest
boundary to the Carbon County border, then follow the county border between Carbon,
Stillwater, and Yellowstone counties east to the Crow Indian Reservation, then south and
east along this border to the Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area, then south along
the western boundary of the Bighorn Canyon Recreation Area to the Montana state border,
then west along the state border to the initial point.
Zone 127:
South Central Montana area that includes Miles City District of the BLM, Montana state
lands, and Lake Mason National Recreation Refuge area. The area is bounded by the
county borders of Golden Valley and Musselshell Counties and excludes portions of the
Musselshell Ranger district of the Lewis and Clark National Forest in northern Golden
Valley county.
Zone 128:
South Central Montana area includes portions of the Miles City District of the BLM, and
Montana state lands. The area is defined as that portion of Big Horn County north of the
Crow Indian Reservation, and Yellowstone County excluding that portion of the Crow
Indian Reservation within Yellowstone County.
Zone 129:
South Central Montana area that includes the Crow Indian Reservation in Montana and the
entire Bighorn Canyon National Recreation area in Montana and Northern Wyoming. The
area begins at the point where the Montana State border and Crow Indian Reservation
coincide North of Sheridan, Wyoming, then follows the border of the Crow Indian
Reservation North, West and South to the Carbon County border, then south to the eastern
border between the Crow Indian Reservation and the Pryor mountain portion of the Custer
National Forest, then east to the Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area, then south
along the western boundary of the Bighorn Canyon Recreation Area boundary to the
Montana state border, then west along the state border to U.S. Highway 310, then south to
U.S. Highway 14a, then east along this highway to the western border of the Bighorn
Canyon Recreation Area, around the southern border of the Recreation area back to U.S.
Highway 14a, then north along the eastern border of the Recreation area to the Montana
state border, then east back to the initial point.
Zone 130:
Southeastern Montana including portions of the Miles City District of the BLM, and
Montana state lands. The area begins where the Yellowstone River enters Treasure county,
then north along the Treasure county border to the Rosebud county border, then follow the
Rosebud county border to where the Yellowstone River exits Rosebud county, then west
along the middle of the Yellowstone River to where the Yellowstone River enters Treasure
county.
Zone 131:
Southeastern Montana including the Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation, Ashland
Ranger District of the Custer National Forest, portions of the Miles City District of the
BLM, and Montana state lands. The area begins where the Yellowstone River enters
Treasure county, then east along the middle of the Yellowstone River to the Custer county
border, then south and east along the Custer county border to the Carter county border, then
south along the Carter county border to the Montana state border with Wyoming, then west
along the Montana/Wyoming border to the southeast corner of the Crow Indian
Reservation, then north along the eastern border of the Crow Indian Reservation to the
northern border of the Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation, then east along the Northern
Cheyenne Indian Reservation to the Rosebud county border, then north along the Rosebud
county border to the Treasure county border, then north along the Treasure county border
to where the Yellowstone River enters Treasure county.
Zone 132:
Southeastern Montana including portions of the Miles City District of the BLM, and
Montana state lands within Custer County, Montana.
Zone 133:
Southeastern Montana and a portion of northwestern South Dakota including the Sioux
Ranger District of the Custer National Forest and portions of the Miles City District of the
BLM, and state lands in both Montana and South Dakota. The area boundary consists of
Fallon and Carter counties in Montana, and Harding county in northwestern South Dakota.
Zone 274:
Sheridan County in Wyoming except the portion that is covered by the Bighorn National
Forest.
Zone 284:
Area consists of the entire Bighorn National Forest in Wyoming.
RAWS Stations Reference List:
A listing of RAWS stations that have provided recent weather data within the Billings area of
responsibility can be found at the link (portable RAWS will show up on this list):
http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?rawsflag=2&state=BYZfwz
Glasgow
National Weather Service Glasgow
Fire Weather
2024 Annual Operating Plan
Location
The National Weather Service in Glasgow, Montana is located across the street from the
Glasgow International Airport. The mailing address is:
National Weather Service
92 Airport Road
Glasgow, MT 59230
Important Phone Numbers and Office Information
24 Hour Fire Weather Desk: (406) 228-9622
Administrative line: (406) 228-2850
Fax (406) 228-9627
Internet http://www.weather.gov/glasgow
Fire Wx Site https://www.weather.gov/wrh/fire?wfo=ggw#
Jacob Zanker
Fire Weather Program Co-Manager
Incident Meteorologist Trainee
Email: [email protected]
Office wide account to share photos or hazard reports:
Area and Agencies Served
The Glasgow Fire Weather District covers Zones 134 through 137 and Zones 120 and 122 in
Northeast Montana. The Glasgow NWS office will issue detailed forecasts to fire control
agencies in the area encompassing northeast Montana Agencies served include:
1. Bureau of Land Management
Lewistown District
Miles City District
2. Bureau of Indian Affairs
Fort Peck Reservation
3. US Fish and Wildlife Service
Bowdoin Refuge
Charles M. Russell Refuge (Fort Peck, Jordan, Sand Springs and Lewistown)
Hewitt Lake Refuge
Lamesteer Refuge
Medicine Lake Refuge
War Horse Refuge
4. Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation
Northeast Land Office (Lewistown)
Southeast Land Office (Miles City)
5. County and local agencies
Forecast Zone Descriptions
ZONE 134: NORTHERN VALLEY AND NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES
This area consists of Phillips and Valley Counties in Northeast Montana north of Beaver and
Willow creeks excluding portions of the Fort Belknap Indian Reservation lands in Phillips
County, and excluding portions of Fort Peck Indian Reservation in Valley County. This also
includes portions of the Lewistown District of the BLM, Montana state lands, and National
Wildlife Refuge lands.
ZONE 135: THE LITTLE ROCKIES
This zone is defined on the north by the Fort Belknap Indian Reservation boundary; on the west
by the Phillips County line; to the south by the CMR boundary; and to the east by highway 191.
This zone includes the portions of the Lewistown District of the BLM, and Montana state lands.
ZONE 136: THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES
M RUSSELL NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE
This zone is defined on the north by Beaver and Willow creeks; on the west by highway 191 and
the western CMR boundary; on the south by Dovetail creek, the middle fork of Lodge Pole creek
and Big Dry creek; and on the east by the eastern CMR boundary. This zone includes the entire
CMR NWR north and south of the Missouri river, as well as portions of the Lewistown and the
Miles City Districts of the BLM, and Montana state lands.
ZONE 137: SOUTHERN PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN GARFIELD COUNTIES
This area consists of Petroleum and Garfield Counties in northeast Montana south of Dovetail
creek, the middle fork of Lodge Pole creek and Big Dry creek. This also includes portions of the
Lewistown District and the Miles City district of the BLM, and Montana state lands.
ZONE 120: FORT PECK INDIAN RESERVATION
Northeast Montana includes the Fort Peck Indian Reservation, portions of the Lewistown District
of the BLM, and Montana state lands, and National Wildlife Refuge Lands. This area consists of
Daniels, Sheridan, and Roosevelt Counties, including all of the Fort Peck Indian Reservation
within Valley County.
ZONE 122: McCONE/RICHLAND/DAWSON/PRAIRIE/WIBAUX COUNTIES
Zone 122 in Northeast Montana includes portions of the Miles City District of the BLM, and
Montana state lands, and National Wildlife Refuge Lands. The area consists of McCone,
Richland, Dawson, Prairie, and Wibaux Counties.
FORECAST SERVICES
Routine Forecasts
Morning Fire Weather Planning Forecasts are issued between 0200 and 0400, 7 days a week
during fire season, usually March to November. Afternoon Fire Weather Planning Forecasts are
issued between 1400 and 1600, 7 days a week during peak fire season, usually July, August, and
September. Forecasts will be updated when needed. The exact dates these forecasts are issued
are dictated by user needs. Partners can always contact those listed in this plan to get forecasts
started sooner, ending later etc.
Since zones 134, 135, 136, 137 and 122 have elevations that fall into the High Level and Mid-
Level Haines index categories; two Haines index values will be provided. The correct Haines
Index can then be applied to the appropriate elevation of concern.
Non-Routine Products
Spot forecasts will be issued upon request. Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches will be
issued as needed. All products will be updated when there is a significant change in the weather
and the product is no longer representative of conditions. The following conditions will be
considered for Red Flag events when the fire danger is Very High or Extreme:
1. Scattered dry thunderstorms or increased thunderstorm activity, wet or dry, during an
extremely dry period.
2. A combination of low relative humidity and increasing strong or gusty surface winds, or
abrupt change in direction due to the approach and passage of a cold front, squall line, or other
weather phenomena other than isolated thunderstorms. See Red Flag Decision Chart below.
3. In coordination with customers, anytime the forecaster foresees a change in weather that
would result in a significant increase in fire danger.
Northeast Montana has a history of very large fall and spring grass fires, which fall outside the
“normal fire season.” A Fire Weather Watch and or Red Flag Warning will be issued to alert
users when favorable fire weather conditions are present outside the “normal fire season.”
Fire Weather Briefings and Notification Emails
Fire weather briefings are not routinely scheduled, but may be held or requested during periods
of extreme fire weather. If briefings are held, notification and briefing details will be
disseminated to users through email. Emails will also be periodically sent to provide overviews
of upcoming weather events which will have high fire impacts. To be added to the notification
list, contact Ben Stoinski or Patrick Gilchrist.
Fire Weather Briefings for Local Restrictions Calls
Fire weather briefings will be provided by the National Weather Service on an as needed basis
for each scheduled restrictions call throughout the fire season. Determination of the need for the
scheduled restrictions call will be made by the BLM office responsible. The briefing for the
Miles City restrictions call will be provided by the Glasgow and Billings NWS offices on an
alternating basis. The briefing for the Lewistown restrictions call will be provided by the
Glasgow and Great Falls NWS offices on an alternating basis. If the observed fire weather, or
fuels conditions favors one office over another in severity, that office may take the lead on the
call on a more routine basis until the conditions become more uniform throughout the call area.
Each NWS office will be present on the call, even if not leading the weather portion, in order to
answer specific questions about their area that participants may have.
Grassland Fire Danger Index Graphic
The National Weather Service Office in Glasgow, MT will issue a grassland fire danger (GFDI)
graphical forecast on its *experimental* Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook webpage on a
twice daily basis. The purpose of this product is to provide a decision support tool to local fire
wardens, chiefs, and county commissioners who must make the decision on whether or not to
issue burn permits for public burning. Forecast elements used in the calculation of the GFDI
include temperature, relative humidity, and wind. The GFDI does not incorporate Burning Index,
ERC, or Rates of Spread, and relies solely on satellite derived greenness maps to account for fuel
status.
The Graphical GFDI product will be posted to the web automatically by 0400 LDT and 1500
LDT daily, and may be periodically updated between those two times. The graphic will display
the forecast grassland fire danger index for a 24 hour period (5am - 5am) starting with Day 1
(Today or Tomorrow, depending on what time of day the graphic is accessed) through Day 7.
More detailed information on the representation of each color range of the GFDI can be found on
the linked webpage below the image.
Red Flag Decision Chart
The following chart is used as a guideline in the decision making process of a Red Flag Warning
when relative humidity and wind are expected to be a factor. This chart is by no means an
absolute, and there may be exceptions depending on the weather and fuel situation. Winds are
sustained 10 minute averages as RAWS observations measure. Input from fire management
officers on fuel conditions is greatly appreciated.
Verification
In order to verify a Red Flag Warning, 2 observation sites in, or very near, a fire weather zone
will need to hit red flag conditions as specified above for a combined 3 hours in an 8 hour period.
When lightning activity is part of the warning, observed lightning coverage will also be taken
into consideration.
Eastern Montana Off Season Red Flag Warning Criteria
Off Season (Mid November through Early April) Red Flag Warning criteria are to be utilized
from fall through the spring, prior to green-up, when the potential for large grassland fire
development exists during periods of strong winds. Local fire community input is strongly
encouraged in order to assess area fuels conditions during this period of limited data.
Criteria:
- Forecasters should consider how long it has been since significant snow and or rain fell across
an area, as well as current fuel conditions.
- A combination of Strong Winds and Relative Humidity less than 25 percent
- Conditions persist for 3 hours or more in an 8 hour period
Red Flag Warnings will be issued in addition to and separate from High Wind Warnings.
NFDRS Forecasts:
Point Forecasts for NFDRS issued between 1400 and 1500, 7 days a week in the fire season.
The locations for point forecasts include:
WIMS ID Location Zone
240807 Zortman Mine 135
240809 Manning Corral 136
240902 Bluff Creek 134
240903 King Coulee 136
241102 Medicine Lake 120
242303 Dry Blood Creek 137
242403 South Sawmill 136
242501 Poplar 120
244002 Big Sheep Mountain 122
244201 Pine Hill 122
LIST OF REFERENCE RAWS STATIONS BY FIRE WEATHER ZONE
Zone
Station Name
WIMS #
County
Location
Elev
Aspect
135
Zortman Mine
240807
Phillips
47 deg 55 min N
108 deg 33 min W
4660
Ridge
134
Bluff Creek
240902
Valley
48 deg 52 min N
106 deg 57 min W
2550
Flat
136
King Coulee
240903
Valley
47 deg 48 min N
107 deg 1 min W
2760
Ridge
120
Poplar
242501
Roosevelt
48 deg 8 min N
105 deg 4 min W
2223
Flat
120
Medicine Lake
241102
Sheridan
48 deg 29 min N
104 deg 29 min W
1975
Flat
137
Dry Blood Creek
242303
Petroleum
47 deg 15 min N
108 deg 22 min W
3140
Ridge S
136
Manning Corral
240809
Phillips
47 deg 42 min N
108 deg 29 min W
3080
Slope SW
136
South Sawmill
242403
Garfield
47 deg 34 min N
107 deg 32 min W
3230
Ridge W
122
Big Sheep
244002
Prairie
47 deg 1 min N
105 deg 49 min W
3150
Valley W-
E
122
Pine Hill
244201
Wibaux
46 deg 47 min N
104 deg 35 min W
2650
Slope E
Great Falls
NWS Great Falls Fire Weather Services and Information
Location
The National Weather Service Office in Great Falls is located at 5324 Tri-Hill Frontage Road, 1
mile southwest of I-15 exit 277 on Tri-Hill Frontage Road. The mailing address is:
National Weather Service
5324 Tri-Hill Frontage Road
Great Falls, Montana 59404-4933
Contact Information
Fire Weather Desk: 406-453-8429
Forecast Operations: 406-453-2081
Fax: 406-453-3812
<Vacant>
Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM)
vacant
Websites
Great Falls area general weather information: https://www.weather.gov/tfx/
Great Falls area fire weather information: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/fire?wfo=tfx
Great Falls areas Fire Weather Decision Support Page: https://www.weather.gov/tfx/firesupport
National fire weather information: https://weather.gov/fire
Operational Hours
NWS Great Falls is staffed 24 hours a day, 7 days a week with meteorologists trained in handling
fire weather support requests.
Fire Weather Services
Fire Weather Planning Forecasts, site specific Spot Forecasts, NFDRS Forecasts, Fire Weather
Watches, and Red Flag Warnings will generally follow the format as outlined in the Basic Fire
Weather Forecast Services section of the Northern Rockies Fire Weather Operations Plan.
The Fire Weather Planning Forecast product will be issued on a routine basis through the fire
season for various land and fire managers within the Great Falls Fire Weather District. The
specific beginning/ending dates of these products vary slightly each year depending on fire
season activity.
Non-routine products such as the Fire Weather Watch and Red Flag Warning will be issued
when conditions warrant. Coordination between the Great Falls forecast office and the land/fire
management agencies is of utmost importance to keep each other informed on fuel and weather
conditions. The agency dispatch offices in the Great Falls fire weather district will be alerted via
telephone upon issuance of any Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag Warning.
Routine Product Issuance Times
Fire Weather Planning Forecasts
Spring: Mornings daily 0600-0630
Wildfire Season Mornings Daily 0600-0630 and Afternoons Daily 1500-1530
Fall: Mornings daily 0600-0630
National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) forecast product
Daily 1500-1530
Spot Forecasts
Spot forecasts are requested and disseminated via the national spot web page at
http://www.weather.gov/spot. This system is interactive, and may be accessed by land/fire
managers, fire crews and dispatchers. Users will be asked to specify their primary concerns on
an individual project such as smoke dispersion, eye-level winds, afternoon relative humidity, etc.
Forecasters will address these concerns and provide general fire weather information in the Spot
forecast, providing a detailed, timely decision-making tool to our fire weather partners. For
assistance on submitting and processing Spot requests, please contact NWS Great Falls. As a
back-up to the website-based system, Spot requests can be submitted via fax (406 453-3812) or
phone call (406-453-8429). When faxing requests, a call should be made to NWS Great Falls to
give a heads-up and verify fax receipt.
Fire Weather Briefings and Email Notifications
NWS Great Falls will offer fire weather briefings via conference call for local land/fire managers
as conditions warrant or upon request. If briefings are held, notification and briefing details will
be disseminated to users through email. Recorded briefings will be produced periodically to
provide overviews and additional information on weather events anticipated to have high fire
weather impacts. Emails are sent as needed to provide an overview of upcoming weather events
and longer range outlooks. If you would like to be included on these emails, please contact one
of our fire program managers.
Fire Restriction Coordination Calls
NWS Great Falls participates in fire restriction coordination calls for the Lewistown, Helena and
Great Falls restrictions group areas. A summary of current and forecast weather conditions is
provided and we are available for any questions or concerns to support decisions being made
concerning fire restrictions.
Training Services
NWS Great Falls fire weather forecasters are available to support fire weather training requests
such as S290, S390, pre-season refresher training and Engine Academies. Refer all training
requests or technical support questions to our fire weather program managers or the
meteorologist in charge. Please give as much advance notification as possible to ensure the
availability of a forecaster.
Social Media
NWS Great Falls uses social media tools such as Twitter, Facebook and YouTube to engage the
public and our partners in conversation around important weather, water, and climate issues. At
times, general fire weather concerns may be addressed through these venues:
Facebook- https://www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls/
Twitter – https://twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls @NWSGreatFalls
YouTube –
https://www.youtube.com/NWSGreatFalls/
Supported Agencies
The NWS Great Falls fire weather program serves a variety of federal, state and local users
across north central and a portion of southwest Montana.
1. United States Forest Service: Helena-Lewis and Clark National Forest
2. Bureau of Land Management: Lewistown
3. Bureau of Indian Affairs: Blackfeet, Fort Belknap and Rocky Boy's Reservations
4. National Wildlife Refuges and National Monuments: Benton Lake NWR, Creedman
Coulee NWR, Black Coulee NWR, Lake Thibadeau NWR, and Upper Missouri River Breaks
NM
5. Wilderness Areas: Gates of the Mountains, Eastern portion of the Bob Marshall Wilderness
Complex
6. State of Montana: MT Dept of Natural Resources and Conservation (DNRC), various land
offices
7. Counties: Glacier, Toole, Liberty, Pondera, Hill, Blaine, Phillips, Teton, Fergus, Lewis &
Clark, Chouteau, Powell, Cascade, Judith Basin, Wheatland, Meagher, Jefferson, Broadwater,
Gallatin
RED FLAG CRITERIA
One or more of the following weather conditions are considered for Red Flag when they occur in
conjunction with Very High or Extreme fire danger conditions:
1. Scattered dry thunderstorms. These are defined as lightning storms accompanied
by less than a wetting rain (0.10 inch precipitation or less), often producing erratic, gusty
winds.
2. Increased thunderstorm activity, wet or dry, during an extremely dry period.
3. A combination of low relative humidity (RH) and strong or gusty surface winds, or
abrupt change in wind direction due to the approach and passage of a cold front, squall
lines, or other weather phenomena other than isolated thunderstorms. See the Red Flag
Decision Chart below for additional details.
4. Anytime the forecaster foresees a change in weather that would result in a significant
increase in fire danger.
Eastern Montana Off-Season Red Flag Warning Criteria
Off-season Red Flag Warning criteria will be utilized during the fall through spring period
(generally mid- November through early April), prior to green-up, when the potential for
grassland fire development exists during periods of strong winds. Local fire community input is
strongly encouraged in order to assess area fuel conditions during this period of limited data.
Criteria: - A prolonged period without snow cover
- Significantly above normal temperatures
- A combination of strong winds and relative humidity less than 25 percent
- Conditions expected to persist for 3 hours or more in an 8-hour period
Note that Red Flag Warnings will be issued in addition to and separate from High Wind
Warnings for applicable events.
RED FLAG VERIFICATION
Red Flag Warnings for winds and low RH will be considered verified when sustained winds are
observed at 15 mph or higher, or gusts of 25 mph or higher, combined with a RH of 20 percent
or lower for three observations within, or near the border of, a given fire zone. The three
observations can be from one sensor or multiple sensors, but must encompass 3 separate hours
out of a consecutive 8-hour period.
RED FLAG DECISION CHART
NWS Great Falls Fire Weather Forecasters utilize a Red Flag Decision Chart as a "first look" at
the need for a Red Flag Warning, based on increasing wind and low RH. Typically Red Flag
Warnings are issued when fire danger is rated "VERY HIGH" or “EXTREME”. However, there
may be exceptions. This chart is by no means an absolute.
Winds here are the sustained 10-minute average (RAWS).
EXPERIMENTAL ENHANCED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (EHWO)
The Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook is a decision support service that
supports preparedness and response efforts prior to and during hazardous weather. This service
provides decision makers with convenient access to potential weather hazard information by
graphically depicting the risk of weather hazards out through seven days.
The fire weather category for the Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook is based primarily on
predicted wind, humidity and temperature, and does not account for fuel moisture from recent
precipitation, snow cover and recently melted snow. Appropriate adjustments to the fire
environment must be made.
Fire Weather District
The NWS Great Falls Fire Weather District covers zones 112 through 118 across north central
and a portion of southwest Montana. The map of all wildland fire zones in Montana can be found
here: MT fire zones.
NWS Great Falls Zone Descriptions
Zone 112: Blackfeet Indian Reservation/Eastern Glacier County/Toole County/Liberty
County/most of Pondera County
This zone starts at the intersection of Glacier National Park (GNP)/Blackfeet Indian Reservation
at the Canadian border. The western boundary follows south along the eastern GNP border and
intersects and runs south along the eastern border of the Lewis and Clark National Forest
(LCNF) until the Pondera/Teton county border. The zone then extends east from this border to
include the remainder of Glacier and Pondera counties and all of Toole and Liberty counties.
Zone 113: Hill and Blaine counties including the Rocky Boy’s and Fort Belknap Indian
Reservations
This zone includes all of Hill County and the majority of Blaine County including all of the
Rocky Boy’s and Fort Belknap Indian Reservations. This zone however excludes the Upper
Missouri National Wild and Scenic River along the southern edge of Blaine County.
Zone 114: Lewis and Clark NF - Rocky Mountain District and portions of the Rocky
Mountain Front
The western boundary of this zone begins at the intersection of U.S. Highway 2/GNP/Blackfeet
Indian Reservation and runs southwest along U.S. Route 2 until the Continental Divide. The
western boundary continues southward along the Continental Divide to include all the western
boundary of the Rocky Mountain District of the LCNF until the intersection of the Continental
Divide and State Route 279. The northern boundary of the zone starts at the intersection of U.S.
Highway 2/GNP/Blackfeet Indian Reservation and runs along the eastern forest boundary until
the Pondera/Teton county line. From this point, the zone extends south and east to include all of
Teton County and northern and central Lewis and Clark County. More specifically in Lewis and
Clark County, the southern border extends due east from the intersection of MT State Route 279,
along the 4700' parallel, to the Cascade County line.
Zone 115: Chouteau/Fergus Counties
This zone includes all of Chouteau County, but excludes the Highwood Mountains of the LCNF
and the extreme southwest section of the Rocky Boy’s Indian Reservation. The zone then
extends southeast to include the majority of Fergus County including the Upper Missouri
National Wild and Scenic River but excludes the LCNF northern and eastern boundaries,
including the Big and Little Snowy Mountains.
Zone 116: All Areas within the Helena and Lincoln Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest (HNF), but excludes the Scapegoat Wilderness Area and Areas east of I-15
This zone extends from the southern boundary of the Northern Rocky District of the LCNF and
the southern boundary of the Scapegoat Wilderness Area southward to include all the HNF,
including the Lincoln and Helena Ranger Districts west of Interstate 15.
Zone 117: All of the Central and Eastern LCNF Areas, including Cascade, Meagher, and
Judith Basin Counties
This zone includes all of Cascade and Judith Basin counties, including a small portion of
southern Chouteau County to include the Highwood Mountains (LCNF), and east to include the
southwest portion of Fergus County specified in Zone 115. The zone then continues south
through Meagher County with the western border being along the eastern edge of the HNF and
the southern border being along the southern Meagher county line until the Crazy Mountains.
The southern border of the zone includes the LCNF portion of the Crazy Mountains.
The southern zone boundary then finishes up along the Meagher/Wheatland county line where it
intersects with the southern edge of the Little Belt Mountains (LCNF).
Zone 118: Areas within the Helena NF east of Interstate 15, including the Townsend and
Helena Ranger Districts
This zone includes portions of southern Lewis and Clark County, western Meagher County, all
of Broadwater County, eastern Jefferson County, and northwest Gallatin County.
List of RAWS/NFDRS Stations by Fire Weather Zone
Zone
Station
Name
WIMS
#
County
Lat
Long
Elevation
Info
112
St. Mary
240303
Glacier
48.70
113.40
4500
SRYM8
112
Deep
Creek BFA
240308
Glacier
48.36
113.11
5340
DCRM8
112
Browning
BFA
240307
Glacier
48.56
113.01
4384
BGRM8
112
Heart
Butte
Pondera
48.29
112.86
4439
HRTM8
113
Fort
Belknap
240705
Blaine
48.33
108.72
2665
FBLM8
113
Little Bull
Whacker
240704
Blaine
47.81
109.02
3100
LBCM8
113
Rocky Boy
240601
Hill
48.26
109.78
3800
RBCM8
114
Benchmark
241901
Lewis &
Clark
47.49
112.87
5350
BEFM8
114
Gates Park
241909
Teton
47.79
112.94
6900
GPKM8
114
Gleason
241802
Teton
47.87
112.67
5200
GSNM8
115
Armells
Creek
242205
Fergus
47.58
108.87
2820
ARMM8
115
Little
Snowy
242207
Fergus
46.75
109.02
4975
LSNM8
116
Lincoln
241904
Lewis &
Clark
46.97
112.64
4597
LNCM8
117
Porphyry
243402
Meagher
46.84
110.72
8232
PHYM8
117
White
Sulpher
Springs
243403
Meagher
46.53
110.89
5060
WSSM8
117
Dearborn
241910
Lewis &
Clark
47.13
111.91
3518
DBOM8
117
South Fork
Judith
242102
Judith
Basin
46.72
110.41
6300
SFJM8
118
Helena
241907
Lewis &
Clark
46.72
112.00
3840
HRWM8
118
Ginger
243302
Broadwater
46.33
111.59
4370
GINM8
118
Elkhorn
Broadwater
46.3147
111.70
6010
EKHM8
Missoula
MISSOULA FIRE WEATHER – 2024
Location
The National Weather Service Office in Missoula is located at the Missoula Fire, Science and
Technology Center, 6633 Aviation Way, 1/4 mile west of the Missoula International Airport.
The mailing address is:
National Weather Service
6633 Aviation Way
Missoula, MT 59808
Phone Numbers
● Fire Weather desk: (406) 329-4716
● Office: (406) 329-4715/4840
● FAX: (406) 329-4842
Contacts
Administrative
IMETs
NWS Missoula Fire Team
Internet Address: https://weather.gov/missoula
Operational Hours: Twenty-four hour service is provided for routine and special fire weather
products.
TRAINING PROVIDED
Missoula Fire Weather Forecasters are available for training courses, workshops, seminars and
other meetings requiring meteorological expertise. Training includes local and Regional courses
such as S-290 and S-390, as well as pre-season refreshers for Hotshot crews, Smokejumpers,
general firefighters, lookout personnel, etc. Please give as much advance notification as possible
to ensure the availability of a forecaster.
All Training Requests should go through the appropriate Fire Weather Team Liaison, listed in
the table above.
FIRE WEATHER BRIEFINGS
NWS Missoula produces recorded fire weather briefings for local land managers.
Recorded briefings will be posted Sundays and Thursdays by 3:00 pm MDT/2:00 pm PDT year
round. More frequent recordings may be produced during periods of increased wildfire activity.
A live link to the briefing will also be placed beneath the discussion in the fire weather forecast
(FWF). Fire weather briefings are also archived on our YouTube channel
(http://www.youtube.com/NWSMissoula).
Land managers are encouraged to call NWS Missoula regarding specific weather and/or recorded
briefing questions at (406)-329-4716
SOCIAL MEDIA
NWS Missoula uses social media tools such as Twitter, Facebook and YouTube to engage the
public and our partners in conversations about important weather, water, and climate issues,
which at times may include information pertaining to fire weather. These tools will be used in
addition to other sources already in use to inform the fire community of critical weather.
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NWSMissoula.
Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/NWSMissoula.
YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/nwsmissoula.
NWS Missoula also uses email as a way to keep in touch with our fire weather partners. Emails
may be used to notify the fire community about potentially significant fire weather events and
may be sent several days before traditional products such as watches or warnings would be
issued. Emails may also be used to announce the start/end of the fire weather forecast, to
advertise fire weather briefings (both live and recorded), and during the prescribed burning
seasons to advertise potential burn windows. If you would like to be included on these emails,
please send a message stating your name, agency and position to [email protected]
AGENCIES SERVED
The National Weather Service Office in Missoula provides fire weather services to agencies in
western Montana and west central Idaho. Agencies served include:
USDA Forest Service Region 1
Lolo NF, Kootenai NF, Flathead NF,
Beaverhead/Deerlodge NF, Clearwater /Nez Perce NF,
Bitterroot NF, Northern Rockies Coordination Center
(NRCC)
Bureau of Land Management
BLM-Idaho, BLM-Montana
Bureau of Indian Affairs
Nez Perce Tribe of Idaho, Confederated Salish and
Kootenai Tribe
Fish & Wildlife Service
FWS-Montana, FWS-Idaho
National Park Service
Glacier NP
State of Montana
Department of Natural Resources and Conservation
Counties (Montana)
Beaverhead, Deer Lodge, Flathead, Granite, Lake,
Lincoln, Mineral, Missoula, Powell, Ravalli, Sanders,
Silverbow, Glacier, Madison, Jefferson
State of Idaho
Idaho Department of Lands, CPTPA
Counties (Idaho)
Clearwater, Idaho, Lewis, Nez Perce, Latah
ROUTINE PRODUCT ISSUANCE TIMES
General Forecast
April - June
Morning
Daily
0700 MDT
July -
September
Morning/
Afternoon
Daily
0700/1500
MDT
October -
November
Morning
Daily
0700 MDT
Specific dates of the above timeframes will be dictated by user needs.
Recorded Fire Weather Briefings
Year Round
Sunday/Thursday
1500
MDT
Briefings may be provided more frequently during
periods of increased wildfire activity.
National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) Forecast Product
Year Round
Daily
1530 MDT
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST EXAMPLE
ZCZC GTFFWFMSO
FNUS55 KMSO 101059
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Wrn Montana and N Cntrl Idaho
National Weather Service Missoula MT
459 AM MDT Fri Aug 10 2013
...Headline as Necessary...
DISCUSSION...
Idaho (Zones 102 and 103): This would be a short, non-technical description
of the weather pattern and features over the next couple days in Idaho. It
will focus on the main weather concerns in the short term.
Northwest MT (Zones 104 and 105): This would be a short, non-technical
description of the weather pattern and features over the next couple days in
northwest Montana. It will focus on the main weather concerns in the short
term.
West-central MT (Zones 106, 107, 108): This would be a short, non-technical
description of the weather pattern and features over the next couple days in
west-central Montana. It will focus on the main weather concerns in the
short term.
Southwest MT (Zones 109, 110, 111): This would be a short, non-technical
description of the weather pattern and features over the next couple days in
southwest Montana. It will focus on the main weather concerns in the short
term.
When a recorded briefing is available, a live link will be placed at the end
of the discussion.
MTZ104-105-111345-
Kootenai-Flathead/Glacier Park-
459 AM MDT Fri Aug 10 2013
...Red Flag Warning in Effect From Noon Today to 9 PM MDT This Evening...
.Today...
* Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny. Areas of smoke. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms this morning.
* Max Temperature.....77-83 valleys and 63-71 ridges.
* Min Humidity........24-34 percent.
* 20-Foot winds.......
* Lower Elevation......Variable less than 7 mph becoming southwest
* 15-25 mph with higher gusts in the late
* morning and afternoon.
* Ridge Top............West 15-25 mph with higher gusts.
* Haines Index........3 Very Low.
* LAL.................2.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...10 Percent.
.Tonight...
* Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy. Areas of smoke.
* Min Temperature.....42-50.
* Max Humidity........80-90 percent valleys and 61-71 percent ridges.
* 20-Foot winds.......
* Lower Elevation......Southwest 15-25 mph becoming west 5-10 mph
* in the late evening and early morning...
* then becoming downslope/downvalley 5-10 mph
* early in the morning.
* Ridge Top............West 15-25 mph decreasing to 10-15 mph
* after midnight.
* LAL.................1.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...0 Percent.
.Saturday...
* Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny. Areas of smoke in the morning.
* Max Temperature.....82-89 valleys and 72-77 ridges.
* Min Humidity........19-29 percent.
* 20-Foot Winds.......
* Lover Elevation......Upslope/Upvalley 2-4 mph becoming south
* 5-10 mph in the afternoon.
* Ridge Top............South 5-15 mph.
* Haines Index........4 Low.
* LAL.................1.
* CWR (> 0.10 Inch)...0 Percent.
.Sunday...Partly cloudy. Lows 48-58. Highs 77-87. West winds to 10-15 mph.
.Monday...Partly cloudy. Lows 49-59. Highs 80-90. Southwest winds
5-10 mph.
.Tuesday...Partly cloudy. Lows 50-60. Highs 85-95. Diurnal
terrain winds to 10 mph.
.Wednesday...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 51-61. Highs 87-97.
.Thursday...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 51-61. Highs 80-90.
$$
Forecast for next geographical descriptor and fire weather zone
group.
$$
RED FLAG CRITERIA
One or more of the following conditions, in conjunction with Very High or Extreme Fire
Dangers, will be considered for Red Flag events.
1. Increasing thunderstorm activity (scattered or widespread coverage).
2. A combination of low RH's and increasing surface winds. See the Red Flag
Decision Chart below.
RED FLAG DECISION CHART
Missoula's Fire Weather Forecasters utilize a Red Flag Decision Chart as a "first look" at the
need for a Red Flag Warning, based on increasing wind and low RH. Typically Red Flag
Warnings are issued when fire danger is rated "VERY HIGH" or greater. However, there may be
exceptions. This chart is by no means an absolute.
Winds are sustained 10-minute average (RAWS). Poss = Possible
FORECAST ZONE DESCRIPTIONS
ZONE 102:
PALOUSE/NEZ PERCE RESERVATION/HELL'S CANYON REGION
The northern boundary follows the southern portion of the Coeur d'Alene Indian Reservation and
the Latah/Clearwater County lines. The eastern boundary originates at the intersection of the
Little North Fork of the Clearwater (near the Clearwater County line) and the
Clearwater/Nezperce National Forest boundary and runs south along the Forest boundary past
Grangeville to the main Salmon River at Island Bar and continues south and west along the
Idaho County border. The western boundary runs along the Snake River from the Coeur d'Alene
Reservation to the Adams County line.
ZONE 103:
CLEARWATER/NEZ PERCE NATIONAL FOREST
This zone encompasses the entire combined Clearwater and Nezperce National Forests as well as
the Gospel Hump and portions of the Selway Bitterroot Wilderness. Also included is the
Floodwood State Forest in the vicinity of the Little North Fork of the Clearwater at the northern
border of Clearwater County.
ZONE 104:
KOOTENAI NATIONAL FOREST/TALLY LAKE DISTRICT (FNF)
The western and northern boundaries follow political lines along the Idaho-Montana and
Canadian borders. The eastern boundary follows the Kootenai National Forest boundary south to
route 93 to the Flathead National Forest boundary, north of Whitefish, east of Columbia Falls
and heading south along the Forest boundary to the Lake County line. The southern boundary
follows the Lake County line and Flathead National Forest boundary to the intersection of route
2 which continues south along Forest boundaries to the State border. The State protected lands
on the Fisher River District are also included within this zone.
ZONE 105:
FLATHEAD NATIONAL FOREST/GLACIER PARK/BOB MARSHALL AND
MISSION MOUNTAIN WILDERNESS
This zone starts at the intersection of the Kootenai/Flathead National Forests at the Canadian
border running east and including Glacier National Park. The eastern boundary follows the Park
border and intersects with the Continental Divide and runs south to the Flathead National Forest
boundary. The southern boundary borders the Bob Marshall and Mission Mountain Wilderness
lines. The western boundary follows the Mission Mountains and Swan range along the Forest
boundary to north of Whitefish and west to route 93 to the Kootenai/Flathead National Forest
boundary. This zone includes the Stillwater State Forest.
ZONE 106:
WESTERN LOLO NATIONAL
FOREST
This zone includes the Nine Mile, Superior, Plains/Thompson Falls and western portions of the
Missoula District on the Lolo National Forest. It is bounded by the Idaho-Montana border
(Bitterroot Mountains) and extends northeast along the Kootenai/Lolo National Forest boundary.
Moving south, this zone follows the Salish & Kootenai Indian Reservation and Lolo National
Forest interface to west of Evaro tracing the Forest boundary to Huson. Crossing I-90, this zone
continues south along the Forest boundary until the intersection of route 12 and continues
southwestward to the State border.
ZONE 107:
FLATHEAD RESERVATION
This zone is bounded by the Lolo National Forest on the west and south and the Flathead
National Forest on the east and north.
ZONE 108:
EASTERN LOLO NATIONAL FOREST /WELCOME CREEK AND SCAPEGOAT
WILDERNESSES
This zone includes all of the Lolo National Forest east of Missoula and south of route 12, up to
the Bitterroot National Forest boundary. It also contains the Scapegoat and most of the Welcome
Creek Wildernesses. The eastern boundary starts at the tri-section of the Bob Marshall
Wilderness, Continental Divide and Scapegoat Wilderness and continues southeast to the
Wilderness/Lincoln District boundary. This line continues south along the Helena National
Forest boundary to the intersection with the Deerlodge/Beaverhead National Forest. The
southern boundary runs west from this boundary to Deer Lodge then north along Interstate 90 to
the intersection with the Philipsburg District line. State protection areas include Missoula,
Clearwater, Garrison, and Anaconda.
ZONE 109:
BITTERROOT NATIONAL FOREST
This zone includes the entire Bitterroot National Forest (in both Idaho and Montana) as well as
the Frank Church River of No Return Wilderness and portions of the Selway-Bitterroot
Wilderness. The Stevensville District represents the northern boundary for this zone which is
approximately along the Ravalli County line.
ZONE 110:
DEERLODGE/ WESTERN BEAVERHEAD NATIONAL
FOREST
The western boundary runs between Lemhi Pass northward along the Idaho-Montana border to
the intersection of the Ravalli and Beaverhead County lines. This boundary continues along the
Forest boundary via the Anaconda-Pintlar range and Sapphire Divide past Skalkaho Pass and
across Rock Creek into the Welcome Creek Wilderness. This boundary cuts north across the
John Long Mountains and intersects with Interstate 90. This zone includes the eastern-most
section of this wilderness area (Lolo National Forest) which is managed by the Philipsburg
District. The northern border follows Interstate 90 to Deerlodge, cuts east and runs along the
Forest boundary, across the divide, and intersects with Interstate 15. The eastern boundary runs
southerly and follows Interstate 15 through Butte and Dillon then along Route 41 to Clark
Canyon Reservoir. The southern boundary extends west along Horse Prairie Creek to Lemhi
Pass.
ZONE
111:
EASTERN BEAVERHEAD NATIONAL FOREST
The southern boundary follows the Idaho-Montana border from Lemhi Pass along the
Continental Divide (Centennial Mountains included) to Reynolds Pass. The eastern zone line
continues along the Beaverhead/Gallatin National Forest boundary to north of Ennis where the
Gallatin boundary intersects the Madison County line. The zone then follows the Madison
County line to east of Whitehall and along the Deerlodge/Helena Forest boundary until Interstate
15 is intersected. The west boundary is identical to the east boundary of the Deerlodge/western
Beaverhead National Forest zone.
WEATHER STATIONS
A listing of RAWS stations that have provided recent weather data within the Missoula area of
responsibility can be found at the following link (portable RAWS will show up on this list as
well):
MesoWest RAWS Stations
FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT
The Missoula Fire Weather District includes zones 102 through 111 in north‑central Idaho and
western Montana.
North Dakota
2024 North Dakota Fire Weather Operating Plan
Table of Contents
Section Page
I. Introduction ……………………………………………………………. 2
II. Service Area and Organizational Directory …………………………. 2
A. Agency Contact Points ………………………………………….. 3
III. Fire Danger Rating for North Dakota…...………………………….. 6
IV. Services Provided by NOAA’s National Weather Service
A. Basic Services
1. Fire Weather Planning Forecast …………………………. 8
2. National Fire Danger Rating System Forecasts …………. 9
3. Experimental Fire Weather Matrix………………………. 10
4. Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings ………… 11
5. Spot Forecasts ……………………………………………... 11
B. Special Services
1. Incident Meteorologist (IMET) Service ………………….. 12
V. Wildland Fire Agency Services and Responsibilities
A. RAWS Station Identification Numbers for New RAWS Stations 13
VI. Appendices
A. North Dakota Fire Danger Rating Map..…………………….. 14
B. NWS Product Examples
1. Experimental Fire Weather Matrix………………………. 15
2. Fire Weather Planning Forecast………………………….. 16
3. National Fire Danger Rating System Forecasts …………. 19
4. Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings…………. 20
5. Spot Forecasts………………………………………………. 21
B. Red Flag Warning Criteria and Red Flag Matrix…………… 23
C. Spot Forecast Fax Request Form and Instructions……………. 24
D. Haines Index Calculations………………………………………. 26
E. Lightning Activity Level Guide…………………………………. 26
F. Smoke Dispersal and Ventilation Terms……………………….. 27
G. RAWS Stations…………………………………………………… 28
VI. Agency Signatures…………………………………………………............ 28
I. Introduction
This Annual Operating Plan (AOP) is a procedural guide, based on the National Interagency Agreement for
Meteorological Services, which describes fire meteorological services provided within North Dakota. The
AOP is updated annually after review by representatives of the National Weather Service (NWS) and each
user agency in North Dakota.
II. Service Area and Organizational Directory
Fire meteorological services in North Dakota are provided by the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) offices in Bismarck and Grand Forks.
The NWS weather forecast office (WFO) in Bismarck is responsible for the fire weather program
in western and central North Dakota, while the NWS WFO in Grand Forks is responsible for
eastern North Dakota. See Figure 1 for specific areas. The normal fire weather season begins in
early April and continues to around the end of October. The season will vary according to the
actual weather conditions. Fire weather forecasts and other fire weather related information can
be found on the Bismarck and Grand Forks Internet web pages:
https://www.weather.gov/bis/ or https://www.weather.gov/fgf/
Figure 1: The NWS-Bismarck area of responsibility is shaded. The area of
responsibility for NWS-Grand Forks is not shaded.
A. Agency Contact Points:
Northern Rockies Predictive
Services
5765 West Broadway Street
Missoula, MT 59808
406-329-4703
406-329-4891 (fax)
Dan Borsum
Fire Weather Meteorologist
406-896-2857
Rebecca McCormick
Fire Weather Meteorologist
rebekah_mccor[email protected]
National Weather Service-
Bismarck:
2301 University Dr.
Building 27
Bismarck, ND 58504
701-223-4582 (Operations)
701-250-4224 (Administration)
Jeffrey Savadel
Meteorologist in Charge
jeffrey.savadel@noaa.gov
Jeffrey Schild
Fire Weather Program Leader
jeffrey.schild@noaa.gov
Nathan Heinert
Incident Meteorologist
Fire Weather Assistant
Matthew Johnson
Fire Weather Assistant
matthew.d.johns[email protected]
Chauncy Schultz
Science and Operations Officer
National Weather Service-Grand
Forks:
4797 Technology Circle
Grand Forks, ND 58203-0600
701-795-5127 (Operations)
701-795-5119 (Coordination)
Melinda Beerends
Meteorologist in Charge
melinda.beerend[email protected]
Brad Hopkins
Fire Weather Program Leader
Austin Perroux
Fire Weather Assistant
Austin.perroux@noaa.gov
National Weather Service-Central
Region:
Christopher Foltz
Fire Weather Program Manager
7220 NW 101
st
Terrace
Kansas City, MO 64153
816-268-3143
816-833-6299 (cell)
christopher.foltz@noaa.gov
Miles City Interagency Dispatch
Center:
111 Garryowen Rd.
Miles City, MT 59301
406-233-2900
406-566-2945 (fax)
Amy Lancaster
Dispatch Center Manager
406-233-2913
US Fish & Wildlife Service:
Jeff Dion
Zone Fire Management Officer
North Dakota Fire Zone
Arrowwood NWR
7780 10
th
St SE
Pingree, ND 58476
701-285-3341 ext. 105 (office)
701-650-1171 (cell)
Jason Wagner
Assistant FMO
USFWS ND Zone
Devils Lake WMD
221 2
nd
St West
Devils Lake, ND 58301
701-766-4825 (office)
701-213-9579 (cell)
Mardell Dahlin
Fire Program Assistant and North
Dakota Training Officer
701-848-6649 (cell)
701-385-4046 ext. 226 (direct line)
mardell_dahlin@fws.gov
Calvin Moldenhauer
Fire Management Specialist
Des Lacs Refuge
42000 520
th
St NW
Kenmare, ND 58746
701-385-4046 ext. 231 (office)
701-339-1456 (cell)
calvin_moldenh[email protected]
Dustin Mireles
Fire Management Spec.-USFWS
12000 353
rd
St. SE
Moffit, ND 58560
701-387-4397 ext. 13 (office)
701-650-7255 (cell)
dustin_mireles@fws.gov
US Forest Service
Dakota Prairie Grasslands:
Lee Nelson
FFMO, Dakota Prairie Grasslands
99 23
rd
Ave W., Suite B
Dickinson, ND 58601
701-227-7851 (office)
701-227-7801 (fax)
701-690-5052 (cell)
VACANT
Fire Operations Specialist
McKenzie Ranger District
1905 S Main
Watford City, ND 58554
701-842-8544 (fax)
Zac Thompson
AFFMO, Dakota Prairie
PO Box 390
Lemmon, SD 57638
605-374-3592 (office)
701-260-2875 (cell)
605-374-5575 (fax)
zachary.thompson@usda.gov
National Park Service:
Rod Skalsky
FMO, ND Group National Parks
PO Box 7
Medora, ND 58645
701-623-4730 (T. Roosevelt NP)
701-745-3234 (Knife R. Indian
Villages NP)
701-426-9813 (cell)
Dan Angelo
AFMO, TR National Park
PO Box 7
Medora, ND 58645
701-623-4730 (office)
701-690-0860 (cell)
Blake McCann
Chief of Resource Management
PO Box 7
Medora, ND 58645
701-623-4730 ext. 1433
Bureau of Indian Affairs:
Heath Estey
Regional FMO
BIA-Great Plains Regional Office
Division of Natural Resources
Fire and Aviation
115
4
th
Ave SE Suite 400 MC-301
Aberdeen, SD 57401
605-226-7621 ext 2237 (office)
605-377-7410 (cell)
605-226-7358 (fax)
Anthony “Tony” Kennedy
High Plains Zone FMO
Spirit Lake Tribe & Fort Totten
Agency
Division of Natural Resources
Fire and Aviation
115 4
th
Ave SE Suite 400 MC-301
Aberdeen, SD 57401
605-226-7621 (office)
605-200-0014 (cell)
605-226-7358 (fax)
anthony.kennedy@bia.gov
David Martin
Assistant Regional FMO
BIA – Great Plains Regional Office
Division of Natural Resources
Fire and Aviation
115 4
th
Ave SE Suite 400 MC-301
Aberdeen, SD 57401
605-226-7621 ext 2238 (office)
605-216-3418 (cell)
605-226-7358 (fax)
Steve Collins
FMO Turtle Mountain Agency
1519 BIA Road #7
PO Box 60
Belcourt, ND 58316
701-477-6531
701-550-1642 (cell)
Joe Jetty
Tribal Wildland Fire Operations
Specialist
Spirit Lake Tribe (Fort Totten
Agency)
118 2
nd
North
PO Box 492
Fort Totten, ND 58335
701-766-0455 (office)
701-381-8135 (cell)
701-766-4224 (fax)
Marle Baker
Tribal FMO
Three Affiliated Tribes (Fort
Berthold Agency)
215 Main Street
PO Box 370
New Town, ND 58763
701-627-2897 (office)
701-421-1423 (cell)
701-627-2896 (fax)
marlebaker@mhanation.com
James Condon
Administrative Officer (POC until
FMO is filled)
194 Proposal Ave.
PO Box E
Fort Yates, ND 58538
701-854-7537 (office)
701-425-8873 (cell)
701-854-7454 (Fire Shed)
North Dakota Forest Service:
Ryan Melin
Fire Management Officer
916 E. Interstate Ave Suite #4
Bismarck, ND 58503
701-328-9985 (office)
701-220-1475 (cell)
701-516-7289 (personal cell)
Ryan.Melin@ndsu.edu
Aaron Bucholz
Assistant Fire Management
Officer-Cooperative Fire
916 E. Interstate Ave Suite #4
Bismarck, ND 58503
701-328-9946 (office)
701-934-4149 (cell)
Aaron.Bucholz@ndsu.edu
Hunter Noor
Assistant Fire Management
Officer-Operations
916 E. Interstate Ave Suite #4
Bismarck, ND 58503
701-328-9539 (office)
701-339-3622 (cell)
Peter Warmuth
Wildland Fire Crew Lead
Technician
916 E. Interstate Ave., Suite #4
Bismarck, ND 58503
701-328-9629 (office)
218-966-7670 (cell)
peter.warmuth@ndsu.edu
Ryan Akkanen
Wildland Fuels Technician
916 E. Interstate Ave., Suite #4
Bismarck, ND 58503
701-328-9619 (office)
715-279-0278 (cell)
Sean White Mountain
Wildland Fire Training Technician
916 E. Interstate Ave., Suite #4
Bismarck, ND 58503
701-328-9916 (office)
701-389-3624 (cell)
sean.whitemountain@ndsu.edu
Lezlee Johnson
Forestry and Fire Team Lead
1402 Albrecht Blvd.
149 Walster Hall
Fargo, ND 58108
701-231-1722 (office)
lezlee.johnson@ndsu.edu
Tom Claeys
State Forester
916 E Interstate Ave
Bismarck, ND 58503
701-328-9945 (office)
701-228-4914 (cell)
Thomas.Claeys@ndsu.edu
Beth Hill
Outreach & Education Mgr.
916 Interstate Ave., Suite #4
Bismarck, ND 58503
701-328-9948 (office)
701-220-5986 (cell)
beth.hill@ndsu.edu
North Dakota Game and Fish
Dept:
Judd Jasmer
Wildlife Resource Biologist and
Fire Coordinator
225 30
th
Ave. SW
Dickinson, ND
701-290-1368 (cell)
701-227-7431 (office)
North Dakota Department of
Emergency Services:
Amy Anton
Operations and Planning Chief
Fraine Barracks Lane – Building 35
Bismarck, ND 58504
701-328-8100
Mary Senger
Burleigh/Emmons County EM
4200 Coleman St.
Bismarck, ND 58503
701-222-6727
North Dakota Firefighter’s
Association:
Rob Knuth
Training Director
1502 Grumman Lane Suite #2
Bismarck, ND 58504
701-222-2799 (office)
701-516-4457 (cell)
US Army Corps of Engineers:
Chad Wimer
201 First Street
Riverdale, ND 58565
701-654-7755 (office)
701-578-4099 (cell)
Chad.A.Wimer@usace.army.mil
State Fire Marshal - a division of
the ND Attorney General’s Office:
Douglas Nelson
State Fire Marshal
ND Insurance Department
600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept 401
Bismarck, ND 58505
701-328-5555 (office)
The Nature Conservancy:
Chris Gordon
1401 River Road
Center, ND 58530
701-794-8741 (office)
785-564-2456 (cell)
III. Fire Danger Rating for North Dakota
The most commonly accepted definition of Fire Danger is: “The resultant descriptor of the combination of
both constant and variable factors which affect the initiation, spread and difficulty of control of wildfires
on an area.” The various factors of fuels, weather, topography and risk are combined to assess the daily fire
potential on an area. Fire Danger is usually expressed in numeric or adjective terms.
The North Dakota Fire Danger Rating Map (see Appendix A) is produced each day by the North Dakota
Department of Emergency Services around 7:00 AM Central time using information from the Experimental Fire
Weather Matrix produced by the National Weather Service (see Section IV.A.3 for details on the Experimental
Fire Weather Matrix, and Appendix B.1 for an example). It is a forecast of the potential for non-agricultural
grasslands to carry fire. It is based on weather and grassland conditions. The highest threat period for
grassland fire danger is usually before the Spring green-up (when grasslands are still in dormancy coming out of
the winter season); and again in the late Summer into Fall (when the curing of grasslands lends to critical
dryness in the moisture content of the various warm-season and cool-season grasses).
The five fire danger ratings are:
Low Moderate High Very High Extreme
These ratings may be useful to local fire management officials for daily planning and preparedness purposes.
The following description of Fire Danger Rating is a description of what may happen should a fire ignite. It
does not describe whether or not a fire will ignite.
Fire Danger Rating
and
Color Code
Description
Low
(Green)
Fuels do not ignite readily from small firebrands although a more intense heat source,
such as lightning, may start fires in duff or punky wood. Fires in open cured grasslands
may bum freely a few hours after rain, but woods fires spread slowly by creeping or
smoldering, and burn in irregular fingers. There is little danger of spotting.
Moderate
(Blue)
Fires can start from most accidental causes, but with the exception of lightning fires in
some areas, the number of starts is generally low. Fires in open cured grasslands will
burn briskly and spread rapidly on windy days. Timber fires spread slowly to
moderately fast. The average fire is of moderate intensity, although heavy
concentrations of fuel, especially draped fuel, may burn hot. Short-distance spotting
may occur, but is not persistent. Fires are not likely to become serious and control is
relatively easy.
High
(Yellow)
All fine dead fuels ignite readily and fires start easily from most causes. Unattended
brush and campfires are likely to escape. Fires spread rapidly and short-distance
spotting is common. High-intensity burning may develop on slopes or in concentrations
of fine fuels. Fires may become serious and their control difficult unless they are
attacked successfully while small.
Very High
(Orange)
Fires start easily from all causes and, immediately after ignition, spread rapidly and
increase quickly in intensity. Spot fires are a constant danger. Fires burning in light
fuels may quickly develop high intensity characteristics such as long-distance spotting
and fire whirlwinds when they burn into heavier fuels.
Extreme
(Red)
Fires start quickly, spread furiously, and burn intensely. All fires are potentially serious.
Development into high intensity burning will usually be faster and occur from smaller
fires than in the very high fire danger class. Direct attack is rarely possible and may be
dangerous except immediately after ignition. Fires that develop headway in heavy slash
or in conifer stands may be unmanageable while the extreme burning condition lasts.
Under these conditions the only effective and safe control action is on the flanks until
the weather changes or the fuel supply lessens.
IV. Services Provided by the NOAA National Weather Service
A. Basic Services
Figure 2: North Dakota Fire Weather Zones used for Fire Weather Watches,
Red Flag Warnings, and Fire Weather Planning Forecasts.
1. Fire Weather Planning Forecast (routine issuance)
This forecast product is issued at a minimum of twice daily during the fire weather season at approximately 4
a.m. and 4 p.m. Central Time, and updated as needed. For the Grand Forks NWS Office, the morning issuance
will be updated to include the observed Haines index.
The morning forecast contains a brief weather discussion, forecasts for today, tonight and tomorrow, and a
general 3 to 7-day forecast. The afternoon forecast covers the periods of tonight, tomorrow, tomorrow night,
the following day, and a general 3 to 7-day forecast. The product will be updated as needed. The “Discussion”
should be tailored to address items of importance to the fire weather forecast. Persistent errors or biases in the
forecast should be brought to the attention of the National Weather Service. The local optional elements may
vary from office to office.
The Bismarck planning forecast optional local elements will be the mid-level Haines index (Appendix D), LAL
(Appendix E), Chance of Wetting Rain (CWR >0.10 inches), transport wind, mixing height and smoke dispersal
(Appendix F). See Appendix A.2 for examples of these products.
The Grand Forks optional local elements will be the mid-level Haines index, LAL, Precipitation amount, hours
of sunshine, transport wind, mixing height, and smoke dispersal.
2. National Fire Danger Rating System Forecasts – Fire Weather Matrix (FWM) (routine issuance)
The National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) is designed to represent the fire potential at peak burning
conditions over a large area, generally in excess of 100,000 acres. The NWS offices in Bismarck and Grand
Forks provide a point forecast, or Fire Weather Matrix (FWM) for RAWS stations utilized in the forecast
NFDRS program. The point forecast is used in the Weather Information Management System (WIMS) forecast
NFDRS calculations.
The following RAWS sites will receive point forecasts daily during the fire season:
NWS Bismarck
Crosby 320101 Watford City 321703
Painted Canyon 322503 Sand Creek 323804
Lostwood 320220 Knife River 322701
J. Clark Salyer 320401 Long Lake 322901
Arrowwood 323536 Turtle Mountain 320501
Tatanka Prairie 328501 Williams Lookout 324101
NWS Grand Forks
Devils Lake 321401
Hampden 320701 Sheyenne 324605
The point forecasts (FWM) should be sent by 1545 LDT. Forecasted NFDRS indices are valid 24 hours from
the current day’s 1400 LDT observation. The forecasts should be available in WIMS by 1615 LDT.
The Following is an explanation of codes used in NFDRS Forecasts. See Appendix A.3 for an example.
FCST,STATION#,YYMMDD,13,WX,TEMP,RH,LAL1,LAL2,WDIR,WSPD,,TX,TN,RHx,RHn,PD1,PD2,WETF
FCST: Indicates individual site forecasts.
STATION#: NFDRS site number
YYMMDD: Date
13: Valid Forecast Time (Always 13 to indicate 1300 LST)
WX: Weather valid at 1300 LST tomorrow. Valid entries are:
0 clear
1 scattered clouds (1/8 to 4/8)
2 broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8)
3 overcast clouds (more than 7/8)
4 foggy
5 drizzle
6 raining
7 snowing or sleeting
8 showers (in sight or at the station)
9 thunderstorm
(Categories 5, 6, 7 sets most NFDRS indices to 0. ERC is the exception)
TEMP: Temperature in degrees F valid at 1300 LST
RH: Relative humidity in percent valid at 1300 LST
LAL1: Lightning Activity Level 1400 LST to 2300 LST
LAL2: Lightning Activity Level 2300 LST to 2300 LST
WDIR: Wind direction valid at 1300 LST
WSPD: Wind speed in mph valid at 1300 LST
TX: Maximum temperature from 1300 LST to 1300 LST tomorrow
TN: Minimum temperature from 1300 LST to 1300 LST tomorrow
RHx: Maximum relative humidity from 1300 LST to 1300 LST tomorrow
RHn: Minimum relative humidity from 1300 LST to 1300 LST tomorrow
PD1: Precipitation duration in hours 1300 LST to 0500 LST
PD2: Precipitation duration in hours 0500 LST to 1300 LST
WETF Y or N: Wet flag, yes or no. This indicates whether or not fuels will be wet at 1300 LST.
3. Experimental Fire Weather Matrix (routine issuance)
This forecast product is produced twice daily and issued around 4 a.m. and 4 p.m. Central Time. It is available
online and through NWS dissemination sources with the product identifier BISOPUBIS. The Experimental Fire
Weather matrix provides a county-based value that describes the potential for wildfires to ignite, spread, and be
difficult to control in non-agricultural grasslands based on weather conditions, fuel state, and topography. A
single value is provided for each of the 53 counties in North Dakota and is provided on a scale of 1 (lowest
potential) to 5 (highest potential). A daily forecast for each of the next seven days is provided in the matrix.
Weather inputs to the matrix are provided from both the NWS Bismarck and NWS Grand Forks offices, while
fuel state information is provided by a calculated Growing Season Index that is supplemented by NFDRS-
provided Energy Release Component values. The weather forecast and fuel state information is combined in a
model that provides a scale-based value of the potential for non-agricultural grasslands to carry fire based on
combinations of critical weather and fuel states, including computation of NFDRS-based Ignition Components
and Burning Index values.
See Appendix B.1 for an example of the Experimental Fire Weather Matrix.
4. Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning (non-routine issuance)
These products are essential to the safety of the fire crews. Coordination with surrounding offices and land
management agencies is essential. Red flag warnings should be issued any time of the day if conditions
warrant.
1) A Fire Weather Watch will be issued when the potential for Red Flag conditions
are expected in the next 12 to 72 hours.
2) A Red Flag Warning will be issued if the Red Flag criteria, given below, are expected to
be met within the next 24 hours, are imminent or are occurring.
The Red Flag information will be included as a “headline” in the daily planning forecast. It will also be
disseminated as a special product that is available on the Internet and NOAA Weather Wire. In addition, the
Miles City Dispatch Center will be notified by phone at 406-233-2900. If one of these products are issued
during the overnight hours, delay notification until 8:00 AM CT.
See Appendix B for Red Flag Criteria. An example of the fire weather watch and red flag warning product is
provided in Appendix A.4.
5. Spot Forecasts (non-routine issuance)
a. Policy
-Spot Forecasts will be issued upon request of any federal, state, tribal, or local official in
support of a wildfire.
-Upon request of any federal official as required under the Interagency Agreement
-Upon request of any state, tribal, or local official in coordination with any federal land
management agency.
-Upon request of any public safety official when essential to public safety
-Will not provide to private citizens or commercial entities not acting as an agent of a
government agency.
b. Procedure for Requesting Spot Forecasts
The preferred method to request a spot forecast is via the national spot web page at
http://www.weather.gov/spot. The spot forecast will be posted to the web page. Our goal is to provide a forecast
within 30 minutes of the request; however, higher priority duties may occasionally delay the spot forecast. An
updated spot forecast may be requested if it appears conditions are significantly different than those forecast.
User feedback on the spot forecasts is strongly encouraged.
Should the national spot web page be unavailable, requests for spot forecasts to WFO Bismarck may be e-
mailed to [email protected] after calling 701-250-4494 to coordinate. Please use WS Form D-1 or
equivalent (Figure 5b) to produce the request if possible. For spot forecast service in eastern North Dakota when
the national spot webpage is unavailable, call WFO Grand Forks at 701-795-5127. The requesting agency
should provide the appropriate fax number or email address for this spot forecast.
The NWS will strive to provide as much detail as possible in the wind forecast. This includes specific wind
shift times, wind gusts, etc.
c. Weather Elements Included in Spot Forecasts
Discussion - A brief synopsis of weather features affecting the area
Sky/Weather, Maximum/Minimum temperature, Maximum/Minimum relative humidity, and 20 foot
Winds (including shifts and gusts)
Optional Elements (Bismarck) – Mid-level Haines index, transport wind, mixing depth, LAL, and
Chance of wetting rain (>.10 inches).
Optional Elements (Grand Forks) - Mid-level Haines index, LAL, Precipitation amount, hours of
sunshine, transport wind, mixing height, and smoke dispersal.
See Appendix A.5 for an example of a Spot Forecast.
B. Special Services
1. Incident Meteorologist (IMET) Service
If a wildfire is, or is expected to be, uncontrollable, and loss of life and/or considerable property damage is a
possibility, the land management agency may request an on-site deployment of a trained and certified NWS
Incident Meteorologist (IMET). An IMET may be requested to a wildland fire at the request of a land
management agency through the Miles City Dispatch Center. Per NWSI 10-402, “All requests for IMET
support will be requested through the NFWOC (National Fire Weather Operations Coordinator).” If a request to
the Bismarck Weather Forecast Office for an IMET is made from anyone other than the NFWOC, then contact
the Bismarck MIC (Meteorologist in Charge). The MIC will contact the NFWOC on duty, who will facilitate
finding an IMET at the regional or national level. The NFWOC 24 hour Duty Number is 877-323-IMET (4638).
V. Wildland Fire Agency Services and Responsibilities
A. RAWS Station Identification Numbers: Procedures for a New RAWS Station
The following steps are necessary in order to correctly provide a new RAWS station with its identification
number:
The land management agency responsible for the new site will provide preliminary information on the plans for
a new station. This information will be provided to the NWS Central Region Fire Weather Program Manager
(Christopher Foltz, available at [email protected] or via phone at 816-268-3143). The preliminary
information should also be shared with the local NWS office. The NWS will provide input on siting criteria of
the site if requested by the land management agency.
A formal request for the six-digit RAWS identification number will be provided to the responsible NWS office,
or directly to the Central Region Headquarters Operational Service Meteorologist.
The regional Operational Services Meteorologist will coordinate with the local NWS office, appropriate land
management personnel, and the WIMS staff in order to determine the proper RAWS identification number.
Note that the first two digits of the identification number denote the state (in ND, the number is 32), the second
pair of digits denotes the county, and the last pair of digits denotes the particular station in that county. In each
county, once a station is given a number, that identification number can no longer be used, even if that station
becomes inactive.
The regional Operational Services Meteorologist will provide the RAWS identification number to the
requesting land management agency and the appropriate NWS office.
The land management agency will notify WIMS in order to assure that the observations are received and sent
from the system.
VI. Appendices
A. North Dakota Fire Danger Rating Map
B. NWS Product Examples
1. Experimental Fire Weather Matrix
EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER MATRIX
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
415 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2021
THIS DEVELOPMENTAL PRODUCT CONTAINS EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER
MATRIX OUTPUT FOR NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT.
FOR OFFICIAL WEATHER FORECASTS, REFER TO WEATHER.GOV. FOR NORTH
DAKOTA FIRE DANGER INFORMATION, REFER TO THE NORTH DAKOTA
DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY SERVICES AT NDRESPONSE.GOV/FIRE-DANGER.
NDC023-282200-
DIVIDE-
415 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2021
TODAY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
L CLASS 3 3 2 2 2 2 1
$$
NDC013-282200-
BURKE-
415 AM CDT THU OCT 28 2021
TODAY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
L CLASS 2 3 2 2 1 2 1
$$
(Continues for the remainder of counties in North Dakota)
2. Fire Weather Planning Forecast
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST (MORNING)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TIME-DATE
...HEADLINE... (REQUIRED FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES...RECOMMENDED FOR
SIGNIFICANT FEATURES AT OTHER TIMES)
.DISCUSSION...
NDZXXX-XXX>XXX-DDHHMM-
GEOGRAPHICAL DESCRIPTORS
...RED FLAG WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE... (AS NEEDED)
.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER...............
MAX TEMPERATURE.....
24 HR TREND..........
MIN HUMIDITY..............
24 HR TREND.........
WIND (20 FT)...../.............
OPTIONAL ELEMENTS...
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.............
MIN TEMPERATURE...
24 HR TREND........
MAX HUMIDITY..........
24 HR TREND.......
WIND (20 FT).................
OPTIONAL ELEMENTS...
.TOMORROW...
SKY/WEATHER..............
MAX TEMPERATURE...
MIN HUMIDITY.............
WIND (20 FT)..................
OPTIONAL ELEMENTS....
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... (WINDS MUST BE INCLUDED DAYS 3-5, MAY BE INCLUDED DAYS 6 & 7)
.DAY3... (DAYS CAN BE COMBINED)
.DAY4...
.DAY5...
.DAY6...
.DAY7...
$$
[FORECAST FOR NEXT GEOGRAPHICAL DESCRIPTOR AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE GROUP]
$$
FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST (AFTERNOON)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TIME-DATE
...HEADLINE... (REQUIRED FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCHES...SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
AT OTHER TIMES RECOMMENDED)
.DISCUSSION...
NDZXXX-XXX>XXX-DDHHMM-
GEOGRAPHICAL DESCRIPTORS
...RED FLAG WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCH HEADLINE... (AS NEEDED)
.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.............
MIN TEMPERATURE...
24 HR TREND........
MAX HUMIDITY..........
24 HR TREND.......
WIND (20 FT)..................
OPTIONAL ELEMENTS...
.TOMORROW...
SKY/WEATHER..............
MAX TEMPERATURE...
24 HR TREND........
MIN HUMIDITY.............
24 HR TREND........
WIND (20 FT)...................
OPTIONAL ELEMENTS...
.TOMORROW NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER............
MIN TEMPERATURE...
MAX HUMIDITY..........
WIND (20 FT).................
OPTIONAL ELEMENTS...
.FOLLOWING DAY...
SKY/WEATHER.............
MAX TEMPERATURE...
MIN HUMIDITY.............
WIND (20 FT)....................
OPTIONAL ELEMENTS...
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... (WINDS MUST BE INCLUDED DAYS 3-5, MAY BE INCLUDED DAYS 6 & 7)
.DAY3... (DAYS CAN BE COMBINED)
.DAY4...
.DAY5...
.DAY6...
.DAY7...
$$
[FORECAST FOR NEXT GEOGRAPHICAL DESCRIPTOR AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE GROUP]
$$
3. National Fire Danger Rating System Forecasts
The following is an example of the point forecast for the RAWS sites in the Bismarck forecast area. The Grand
Forks product will look the same, but will be for the RAWS sites in their forecast area.
FNUS83 KBIS 061944
FWMBIS
FCST,320101,100407,13,1,54,27,1,1,W,14,,56,29,72,26,0,0,N
FCST,320220,100407,13,2,54,31,1,1,S,11,,56,28,81,20,0,0,N
FCST,320401,100407,13,1,56,34,1,1,SSE,06,,57,29,81,29,0,0,N
FCST,321703,100407,13,2,54,29,1,1,W,13,,58,30,78,15,0,0,N
FCST,322503,100407,13,2,51,30,1,2,WNW,14,,54,30,72,24,0,0,N
FCST,322701,100407,13,2,55,34,1,2,SE,05,,60,30,78,19,0,0,N
FCST,322901,100407,13,1,55,35,1,2,NNW,10,,60,31,81,22,0,0,N
FCST,323536,100407,13,1,53,36,1,1,N,14,,60,30,85,28,0,0,N
FCST,323804,100407,13,2,49,32,1,2,WNW,14,,55,30,72,27,0,0,N
FCST,320501,100407,13,1,52,41,1,1,NNE,04,,52,27,92,41,0,0,N
FCST,328501,100407,13,2,55,34,1,2,WNW,06,,61,32,78,23,0,0,N
FCST,324101,100407,13,1,56,34,1,1,SSE,06,,57,29,81,29,0,0,N
Both the Grand Forks and Bismarck NWS offices provide 7-day point forecasts for the RAWS sites. The
following is an example of the 7-day point forecast for Crosby RAWS and Lostwood RAWS. The text
continues for 11 more RAWS sites within the Bismarck forecast area. The Grand Forks text product will
look much the same, but will be valid for the RAWS sites in Grand Forks’ forecast area.
FNUS83 KBIS 232232
FWMBIS
FCST,320101,160224,13,2,31,73,1,1,NNW,18,,39,21,100,62,0,0,N
FCST,320101,160225,13,2,30,70,1,1,SW,06,,33,16,100,68,0,0,N
FCST,320101,160226,13,0,42,56,1,1,W,12,,43,22,100,54,0,0,N
FCST,320101,160227,13,2,38,62,1,1,N,09,,44,24,100,54,0,0,N
FCST,320101,160228,13,2,27,73,1,1,W,09,,40,17,100,58,0,0,N
FCST,320101,160229,13,2,25,69,1,1,NNE,09,,32,15,100,66,0,0,N
FCST,320101,160301,13,2,30,67,1,1,WNW,08,,31,15,94,58,0,0,N
FCST,320220,160224,13,3,29,80,1,1,NNW,18,,38,21,100,64,0,0,N
FCST,320220,160225,13,2,28,72,1,1,W,08,,32,16,100,71,0,0,N
FCST,320220,160226,13,1,38,65,1,1,WNW,16,,39,21,100,63,0,0,N
FCST,320220,160227,13,2,35,68,1,1,NNE,09,,41,24,100,62,0,0,N
FCST,320220,160228,13,2,21,81,1,1,W,08,,37,15,99,63,0,0,N
FCST,320220,160229,13,2,23,68,1,1,ENE,08,,28,12,100,64,0,0,N
FCST,320220,160301,13,2,28,69,1,1,W,08,,28,13,95,58,0,0,N
4. Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
401 AM CDT Fri May 4 2020
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
.Critical fire weather conditions are expected across central North Dakota
this afternoon and early evening. Westerly winds will increase to around
25 mph, gusting to 40 mph, with relative humidity values falling as low as
17 percent. Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly in dry fuels and become
difficult to control or suppress.
NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-042115-
/O.NEW.KBIS.FW.W.0003.180504T1800Z-180505T0000Z/
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
401 AM CDT Fri May 4 2018 /301 AM MDT Fri May 4 2018/
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...
The National Weather Service in Bismarck has issued a Red Flag
Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect
from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
this evening.
* AFFECTED AREA...Central North Dakota.
* WINDS...Northwest 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 17 percent.
* IMPACTS...Any fires that ignite will spread rapidly and become
difficult to control or suppress.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.
&&
$$
5. Spot Forecasts
Spot Forecast for (Name of Incident or Site)...(Requesting Agency)
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
401 AM CDT Fri May 4 2020
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May (date).
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...High pressure will dominate today resulting in a
clear sky and warm temperatures as highs reach near 90F. At
ignition time, expect a west northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph,
which will become northwesterly by mid afternoon, and gradually
decrease in speed to between 6 and 10 mph. A minimum relative humidity
of 23 percent is forecast late this afternoon.
An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to shift across the
prescribed burn area after midnight tonight through mid morning Sunday.
Gusty and erratic winds can be anticipated with any thunderstorm
activity tonight through Sunday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......5700-6800 ft AGL increasing to 7800-9000 ft AGL
early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (85400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 to 6 OR (moderate) to (high).
TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1 1 1 1 2 3
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............83 85 87 88 89 89
RH..............36 32 28 25 24 23
20 FT wind dir..WNW WNW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..10 10 9 7 6 6
20 FT wind gust.15 15 12 10 9 8
Mix hgt (kft)...5.7 6.8 7.8 8.4 8.9 9.0
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.17 17 16 15 14 12
Haines index....5 5 5 6 6 6
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms after
midnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds to 6 mph early in the evening
becoming southeast late in the evening. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
after midnight.
Mixing height.......8400-8800 ft AGL decreasing to 500-2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 9 mph shifting to the southeast 5 to
13 mph in the late evening. Winds becoming south
to 15 mph early Sunday morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to excellent (27900-70500 knot-ft)
decreasing to poor (4300 knot-ft) in the late
evening and overnight.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........4 6 8 11 15 21 28 38 50 62 71 75
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 30 30 30
Temp............89 87 82 77 72 69 66 64 63 62 61 60
RH..............24 26 33 38 44 51 56 60 63 66 70 75
20 FT wind dir..NW NW N E E E E E SE SE SE E
20 FT wind spd..6 4 2 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 1
20 FT wind gust.7 5 3 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 2
Mix hgt (kft)...8.8 8.4 5.6 2.2 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.W W W E E SE SE SE S S S S
Transp wind spd.9 7 6 5 6 7 9 10 13 15 16 16
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms early in the morning.
morning.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 5 to 10 mph. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
in the morning.
Mixing height.......400-1700 ft AGL increasing to 4600-5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph shifting to the
northeast 9 to 16 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (4500-50100 knot-ft) increasing to
good to excellent (55500-72500 knot-ft) late in
the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 OR (low) to (high).
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........75 52 51 56
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30 20 20 10
Temp............59 67 80 85
RH..............80 68 45 36
20 FT wind......N 3G5 N 6 N 8 N 10
Mix hgt (ft)....500 1100 4000 4700
Transport wind..SW 15 E 12 NE 9 NE 14
Haines index....6 5 4 4
$$
Forecaster…(NWS Forecaster Name)
Requested by...(Requesting Agent Name)
Type of request...PRESCRIBED (or WILDFIRE or HAZMAT, etc.)
.TAG 1810677.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/26/18
.EMAIL (email of requesting agent)
B. Red Flag Warning Criteria and the Red Flag Matrix –
The following red flag matrix was based on calculations for Rate of Spread of wildfires using “Behave”
software given certain wind and relative humidity values on a sunny summer day with a temperature of 80F, is
used as a “first look” when considering the need for a Red Flag Warning. The chart is meant as a guide, and is
not absolute.
Some special considerations (discretion clause) to take into account:
NWS will maintain limited flexibility in using and interpreting the Red Flag Matrix. This flexibility allows
forecaster discretion, and will allow forecasters to issue a Red Flag Warning, albeit sparingly, for unforeseen or
drastic weather events, such as:
1) Dry thunderstorm activity is foreseen during an extremely dry period.
2) Anytime the forecaster foresees a change in weather that would result in a significant increase in fire
danger (e.g., very strong winds associated with a cold front even though the fire danger rating is below
the high category, extensive lightning, etc.)
3) During the off-season (post freeze of RAWS stations and pre-greenup of the RAWS stations) forecasters
will use the discretion while cross-referencing the Red Flag Matrix in Red Flag decision-making.
C. Spot Forecast Fax Request Form and Instructions
WS FORM D-1 U.S. Department of Commerce
(1-2005) SPOT REQUEST NOAA
(Supersedes Previous Editions) (See reverse for instructions) National Weather Service
Please call the NWS Weather Forecast Office (WFO) when submitting a request and also after you receive a forecast to ensure
request and forecast were received.
Please provide feedback to WFO on forecast.
1. Time†
2. Date
3. Name of Incident or Project
4. Requesting Agency
5. Requesting Official
6. Phone Number
7. Fax Number
8. Contact Person
9. Ignition/Incident Time and Date
12. Reason for Spot Request (choose one only)
o Wildfire
o Non-Wildfire Under the Interagency
Agreement for Meteorological Services
(USFS, BLM, NPS, USFWS, BIA)
o Non-Wildfire State, tribal or local fire
agency working in coordination with a
federal participant in the Interagency
Agreement for Meteorological Services
13. Latitude/Longitude:
10. Size (Acres)
14. Elevation (ft, Mean Sea Level)
Top: Bottom:
11. Type of Incident
o Wildfire
o Prescribed Fire
15. Drainage
o Wildland Fire Use (WFU)
o HAZMAT
o Search And Rescue (SAR)
o Non-Wildfire Essential to public safety,
e.g. due to the proximity of population
centers or critical infrastructure.
16. Aspect
17. Sheltering
o Full
o Partial
o Unsheltered
18. Fuel Type: Grass Brush Timber Slash Grass/Timber Understory Other___________________
Fuel Model: 1,2,3 4,5,6,7 8,9,10 11,12,13 2,5,8
19. Location and name of nearest weather observing station (distance & direction from project):
20. Weather Observations from project or nearby station(s): (Winds should be in compass direction e.g. N, NW, etc.)
Place
Elevation
†Ob
Time
20 ft. Wind
Dir Speed
Eye Level
Wind.
Dir Speed
Temp.
Dry Wet
Moisture
RH DP
Remarks
(Relevant Weather, etc)
21. Requested Forecast Period
Date
Start ____________
End ____________
Forecast needed for:
o Today
o Tonight
o Day 2
o Extended
22. Primary Forecast Elements (Check all that are needed)
(for management ignited wildland fires, provide prescription
parameters):
Needed:
Sky/Weather __
Temperature __
Humidity __
20 ft Wind __
Valley __
Ridge Top __
Other (Specify in #23) __
23. Remarks (other needed forecast elements,
forecast needed for specific time, etc.)
24. Send Forecast to:
ATTN:
25. Location:
26. Phone Number:
Fax Number:
27. Remarks (Special requests, incident details, Smoke Dispersion elements needed, etc.):
EXPLANATION OF SYMBOLS: † Use 24-hour clock to indicate time. Example: 10:15 p.m. = 2215; 10:15 a.m. = 1015
Indicate local standard time or local daylight time
WS FORM D-1
WS FORM D-1, January 2005
INSTRUCTIONS:
I. Incident Personnel:
1. Complete items 1 through 27 where applicable.
13. Weather Observations from project or nearby station(s):
Place
Elevation
†Ob
Time
20 ft. Wind
Eye Level Wind.
Temp.
Moisture
Remarks
(Relevant Weather, etc.)
Dir
Speed
Dir
Speed
Dry
Wet
RH
DP
60
a. Example of weather conditions on site:
b. If the incident (HAZMAT, SAR) involves marine, put the wave/swell height and
direction in the Remarks section.
2. Transmit in numerical sequence or fax to the appropriate Weather Forecast Office. (A weather
forecaster on duty will complete the special forecast as quickly as possible and transmit the
forecast and outlook to you by the method requested)
3. Retain completed copy for your records.
4. Provide feedback to NWS utilizing separate page. Be sure to include a copy of the spot
forecast with any feedback submission including forecaster’s name. Feedback to NWS
personnel is imperative to assist with future forecasts. Remember, feedback on correct forecasts
is equally as valuable as feedback on incorrect forecasts! If spot forecast is significantly
different than conditions on site, a second forecast may be required.
II. ALL RELAY POINTS should use this form to insure completeness of date and forecast. A supply of
this form should be kept by each dispatcher and all others who may be relaying requests for
forecasts or relaying completed forecasts to field units.
III. Forms are available from your local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office. They may
also be reproduced by other agencies as needed, entering the phone number and radio
identification if desired.
NOTICE: Information provided on this form may be used by the National Weather Service for official
purposes in any way, including public release and publication in NWS products. False statements on this
form may be subject to prosecution under the False Statement Accountability Act of 1996 (18 U.S.C. § 1001)
or other statutes.
D. Haines Index Calculations
Computing the Haines Index in Middle Terrain Elevations:
Stability Term= Temp(850mb) - Temp(700mb)
Moisture Term = Temp(850mb) -Dew Point Temp(850mb)
Each term is given a value of either 1, 2 or 3.
Stability Term Value:
1 – if 5 deg C or less
2 – if 6-10 deg C
Unit G-50
1530'
0830
NW
6-8
NW
3-5
32
72
Observations from unit
RAWS station, 50%
cloud cover.
61
3 – if 11 deg C or more
Moisture Term Value:
1 – if 5 deg C or less
2 – if 6-12 deg C
3 – if 13 deg C or more
The Stability and Moisture terms are added to calculate the Haines index.
Mid Level Haines Index Potential for large fire growth
2 or 3 ...very low
4 ...low
5 ...moderate
6 ...high
E. Lightning Activity Level Guide
Lightning Activity Level Guide
LAL
Coverage
1
No T-storms
2
Isolated T-storms (1-14% coverage)
3
Widely Scattered T-Storms (15-24% coverage)
4
Scattered T-storms (25-54% coverage)
5
Numerous (55+% coverage)
6
>=15% coverage...little or no rain
62
F. Smoke Dispersal and Ventilation Terms
Smoke Dispersal Terms
Category Description
Very Poor High smoke pollution potential. Usually occurs in a very stable air (strong
inversion) and light winds. Normally occurs late at night and early in the
morning hours, but could occur during the daytime when a shallow pool of
cold air intrudes into the area creating strong low level inversions. Burning is
not advised under this category.
Poor Moderate to High smoke potential. Burning not advised under this category.
Most likely time of occurrence is from evening through the early morning.
Fair Marginal smoke pollution potential. Dependent on trend of weather and local
conditions. Generally acceptable for small burns of dry fuels.
Good Moderate to Low smoke pollution potential. No inversion and gentle winds
expected. Most likely to occur in the late morning and afternoon when surface
heating usually breaks through the low level inversions.
Very Good Low smoke pollution potential. Transport winds or mixing height lower than
that for Excellent. Transport winds stronger than that for Good. Most likely to
occur in the late morning and afternoon.
Excellent Low smoke pollution potential. Unstable airmass and/or brisk winds. Best
time to conduct burning operations if fire can be controlled. Most likely to
occur in the late morning and afternoon or when a strong weather system
affects the area, eliminating all low level inversions and generating moderate
winds.
Breakdown of Ventilation
Based on Mixing Height and Transport Wind
Excellent...............150,000 Knot Feet and Greater
Very Good.............100,000 to 150,000 Knot Feet
Good.......................60,000 to 100,000 Knot Feet
Fair..........................40,000 to 60,000 Knot Feet
Poor.........................Less than 40,000 Knot Feet
63
G. Listing of RAWS Stations in North Dakota
The following is a listing of active RAWS stations in North Dakota as of February 1
st
, 2024.
NWS Bismarck Forecast Area
Crosby 320101 Watford City 321703
Painted Canyon 322503 Sand Creek 323804
Lostwood 320220 Knife River 322701
J. Clark Salyer 320401 Long Lake 322901
Arrowwood 323536 Turtle Mountain 320501
Tatanka Prairie 328501 Williams Lookout 324101
NWS Grand Forks Forecast Area
Hampden 320701 Devils Lake 321401
Sheyenne 324605
VI. Agency Signatures
This plan is valid for the 2024 North Dakota fire season.
/Signed/date
Jeffrey Savadel, NOAA National Weather Service Meteorologist in Charge (Bismarck)
Representing both NWS offices with fire weather forecast responsibility in North Dakota
/Signed/date
Rod Skalsky, FMO, ND Group National Parks, National Park Service
North Dakota Fire Council Chairman
64
Riverton
2024 NWS Riverton Weather Office
NOTE: This information describes the Riverton Fire Weather support for the Northern Rockies Geographic
Area.
Location
The National Weather Service office in Riverton, Wyoming is located west of Central Wyoming Regional
Airport.
The mailing address is:
National Weather Service
12744 West US Hwy 26
Riverton, WY 82501
Contact Information
Chris Jones
Meteorologist in Charge
Jason Straub
Fire Weather Team / IMET
Noah Myers
Fire Weather Team / IMET
Office: (307) 857-3869 / (800) 211-1448
Internet Addresses
General Weather Information: https://weather.gov/riw
Fire Weather Information: https://weather.gov/riw/fire
National Fire Weather Information: https://weather.gov/fire
65
Operational Hours
The National Weather Service office in Riverton, Wyoming is staffed 24 hours a day with
at least one meteorologist certified to handle Fire Weather requests. Additional staff is usually available
enabling multiple requests to be handled in a timely manner.
General Fire Weather Forecast Issuance Times (Dates may be adjusted according to user needs)
Once daily automated issuance (no discussion) November - April by 0700 MST/MDT.
Once daily issuance (with discussion) May and October by 0700 MDT.
Twice daily issuance (with discussion) June - September by 0700 MDT and 1500 MDT.
Forecast Services
Fire Weather Forecasts, site specific Spot Forecasts, Red Flag Warnings, Rangeland Fire Danger Statements
and Fire Weather Watches will generally follow the format as defined in the Fire Weather Products
Section of the Northern Rockies Annual Operating Plan. These products are issued on a routine basis
through the season. Smoke Dispersion information is available in the Fire Weather Forecasts and upon
request for verbal briefings, through spot requests, and through point-and-click tabular data.
Non-routine or unscheduled products may be issued at any time as weather conditions can and do change
rapidly. The affected dispatch offices in the Riverton Fire Weather District will be alerted by telephone
should this need occur.
Fire Weather Briefings
The National Weather Service in Riverton will offer fire weather briefings via conference calls on an event
driven basis. A notification email will be sent whenever a briefing is issued from this address:
[email protected]. Please ensure this address is out of your “spam” list.
Red Flag Criteria
These are Red Flag events when they occur with critical fuels.
1. Widely scattered dry thunderstorms. (A lightning storm accompanied by less than 0.10 inch
precipitation or less, often with very gusty winds).
2. Increased thunderstorm activity, wet or dry, during an extremely dry period (Critical Lightning)
3. A combination of low RH's and increasing strong or gusty surface winds, or abrupt change in direction
due to the approach and passage of a cold front, squall line, or other weather phenomena other than isolated
thunderstorms.
66
4. Anytime the forecaster foresees a change in weather that would result in a significant increase in fire
danger.
Red Flag Verification
Red Flag Warnings for Winds and RH will be considered verified when sustained winds or frequent gusts of
25 mph or higher are observed, combined with an RH of 15 percent or lower for any three hours or more in
a 12-hour period within a given fire weather zone.
Rangeland Fire Danger Statement
These will be issued for near critical fire weather conditions. Either a) Fuels are not yet deemed critical on a
more widespread basis but weather conditions would have met red flag criteria;, OR b) Weather conditions
don’t quite meet red flag criteria and fuels are critical.
1. No snow cover and less than 0.10” of precipitation in the last five days
2. Temperatures greater than or equal to 10F above normal
3. Wind sustained 15 mph or greater
4. Relative humidity less than 25%
Agencies Served
The Riverton National Weather Service Office serves Yellowstone National Park in the Northern Rockies
Area.
Fire Weather Zones
The Riverton Fire Weather District covers Zone 140, Yellowstone National Park in extreme northwest
Wyoming.
List of Reference RAWS Stations by Fire Weather Zone: (This list may be subject to change,
please check periodically for updates.)
Zone Station WIMS # County Lat Long Elev
140 Cabin Creek 480118 Park 44.31 -110.15 8650'
140 Quadrant 480115 Park 44.93 -110.99 7900'
140 Soda Butte 480119 Park, MT 45.01 -110.04 8160'
140 Grebe 480120 Park 44.72 -110.51 7900'
140 Bechler 480101 Teton 44.15 -111.04 6400'
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Spokane
National Weather Service, Spokane Fire Weather Operating Plan 2024
NEW For 2024:
1) Staff changes
. Andrew Brown (Promotion to Meteorologist in Charge)
a. Several vacancies from transfers/retirement
2) Fire weather chat room available for fire partners
3) Potential use of “Extreme” fire weather conditions during live briefings
LOCATION:
National Weather Service Office
2601 North Rambo Road
Spokane, WA 99224-9164
HOURS:
Office hours at NWS Spokane for Fire Weather will be as follows:
Daily with 24 hour forecast and briefing coverage
PHONE NUMBERS and E-Mail:
Fire Weather (509) 244-0537
Public (509) 244-6395
FAX (509) 244-0554
STAFF:
Name Position
Andrew Brown Meteorologist in Charge
vacant Science and Operations Officer
vacant Warning Coordination Meteorologist
Todd Carter ITO/IMET
Steve Bodnar Senior Forecaster/Fire Weather Program Leader/IMET
Jeremy Wolf Senior Forecaster
Greg Koch Senior Forecaster
Char Dewey Senior Forecaster
Jon Fox Forecaster/IMET
Miranda Solveig Cote Forecaster
Robin Fox Hydrologist/BAER Team/Forecaster
Laurie Nisbet Forecaster
Rocco Pelatti Forecaster
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Steven Van Horn Forecaster/IMET
Joey Clevenger Forecaster
Ken Daniel Forecaster
Valerie Thaler Forecaster
Krista Carrothers Forecaster/IMET Trainee
COMMUNICATIONS:
All forecasts are available on WIMS, and Spokane’s home page. Customers who do not have access to WIMS,
or Internet can still have forecasts faxed to them.
Internet Address:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/otx
http://www.weather.gov/spokane
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/fire?wfo=otx
FIRE WEATHER CHAT ROOM:
NWSChat, powered by Slack, is used by NWS operational personnel to deliver Impact-based Decision Support
Services (IDSS) and exchange hydrometeorological or other hazards information with our Core Partners. This
information aids in the efficacy of local, state, regional and national emergency response and recovery efforts,
thereby aligning with the agency's mission of protecting life and property. The private channel
#otx-fire will be utilized for exchanging fire weather and other related information to IMETs and fire partners.
For registration information, please contact [email protected].
69
SPOKANE FIRE WEATHER DASHBOARD:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/firedashboard
A fire weather dashboard is available. The dashboard houses resources related to fire weather from the Spokane
National Weather Service, regional coordination centers, Storm Prediction Center, and more. Graphs including
temperature and precipitation anomalies as well as the latest drought status can be found on the resource. Any
suggestions for additional products, please email [email protected]
70
FIRE WEATHER WEBPAGE
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/fire?wfo=otx&layer=fwx
Three tabs found on the bottom of the map for a selected gridpoint. Gridpoint is defined as a 2.5km by 2.5km
forecast point (ie, the green box illustrated on map)
Tab 1: Fire Weather Zone Forecast for the specified gridpoint
Tab 2: Color coded Fire Weather Matrix for the specified gridpoint.
Tab 3: Point Forecast Matrix for the specified gridpoint. (elevation listed)
3 Tabs
Grid point
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TRAINING PROVIDED
Spokane Fire Weather Forecasters are available for training courses, workshops, seminars and other meetings
requiring meteorological expertise. Training includes local and regional courses such as S-290 and S-390, as
well as pre-season refreshers for Hotshot crews, Smokejumpers, burn bosses, general firefighters, lookout
personnel, etc. Please give as much advance notification as possible to ensure the availability of a forecaster.
Please send all training requests to [email protected].
WEATHER BRIEFINGS
Internet based weather briefings are available from the Spokane office as needed. During peak fire season,
normally mid June-early October briefings will be daily at 0900 PDT. These briefings will be recorded and
posted online by 1000 PDT.
New for 2024, forecasters will have the ability to brief our customers of potentially extreme fire weather
conditions. This descriptor will only be utilized in the fire weather briefing on the weather matrix and problem
of the week graphics. Below is a break-down for the color scale used:
Elevated – Fire weather conditions are critical or near critical but fuels have not been declared ready for
fire weather highlights. Elevated could also be used when fuels are ready but weather conditions are
marginal. In the event of lightning events with dry fuels, elevated could imply moderate to high
uncertainty in a zone or isolated coverage.
Critical – Fire weather conditions are critical and fuels have been declared ready. Fire weather watches
or red flag warnings have been issued or are anticipated.
Extreme – Reserved for critical fire weather events that are extremely rare and have a combination of
historic winds, humidity levels, and fuel dryness. Previous events for reference include 1991 Fire
Storm, 2015 Okanogan Wind Storm, 2020 Labor Day Storm, and 2023 August Fires of Spokane
County.
During Land Management season briefings are available by customer request and are usually once to twice per
week for planning purposes. To register for the webinars, please contact [email protected] to be added
to the seasonal list or call 509-244-5031 to inquiry about registering. Phone briefings are available 24 hours per
day by calling 509-244-5031.
72
SOCIAL MEDIA
NWS Spokane has a Facebook page, Twitter account, and a YouTube channel. Information about current Fire
Weather may be included in these social media feeds, but such information is intended as supplemental
information for the general public; it is not intended to meet the specialized needs of the wildland firefighting
community.
www.twitter.com/NWSSpokane,
https://www.facebook.com/NWSSpokane/
https://www.youtube.com/user/nwsspokane
FORECAST DISTRICT:
NWS Spokane has fire weather forecast responsibility for a large portion of protected lands in eastern
Washington. Exceptions are the Blue Mountains, the Yakama Indian Nation lands, the DOE Hanford Site, and
portions of the Southeast Department of Natural Resources (DNR) land. These protected lands are the forecast
responsibility of the National Weather Service Office Pendleton Fire Weather program.
WFO Spokane’s eastern Washington fire weather area is divided into five districts. In addition, these forecast
districts are subdivided into fifteen fire weather zones. See the map for general locations of districts and zones
for eastern Washington. The fire weather zones are comprised of fire danger stations with similar weather and
similar trends in weather changes. In 2022, new fire weather zones were established in Eastern Washington.
These zones are in better alignment with fire danger rating areas.
NWS Spokane has forecast responsibility for the Central and Northern Idaho Panhandle. This district has one
zone (101) covering the Idaho Panhandle National Forests, Idaho State Lands, and Coeur d’Alene Indian
Agency lands.
Agencies Served:
Land management agencies served by the Spokane Fire Weather Office include:
USFS.... Colville NF
Okanogan-Wenatchee NF
Idaho Panhandle NF
BLM.... Spokane District
Coeur d’Alene District
BIA.... Confederated Tribes of the Colville Reservation
Spokane Tribe of Indians
Coeur d’Alene Tribe of Indians
Kalispel Tribe of Indians
NWR... Turnbull National Wildlife Refuge
Columbia National Wildlife Refuge
Kootenai National Wildlife Refuge
73
Lake Pend Oreille Wildlife Refuge
Sinlahekin Wildlife Refuge
Washington DNR... Northeast Area Resource Protection Division
Southeast Area Resource Protection Division
Idaho... Department of State Lands
NPS... Lake Roosevelt National Recreation Area
Lake Chelan National Recreation Area
FORECAST SERVICES:
Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings
Red Flag criteria for eastern Washington and Northern Idaho are as follows:
• “Dry Thunderstorm” Red Flag criteria is defined as follows:
Abundant lightning in conjunction with sufficiently dry fuels.
“Abundant” and “Sufficient” are locally defined and verified by NWS offices
and their fire agency customers using the following GACC AOP-wide
guidelines:
Abundant Lightning:
1) Number of lightning strikes that meet climatologically significant
criteria, or
2) Areal coverage of lightning such as “Scattered” or > 25%
Sufficiently Dry Fuels:
1) ERC or BI values meeting climatologically significant percentiles or
2) Land management declaration
• Dry and Windy: Sustained surface winds
exceeding a 10 minute average of 15 mph combined with relative humidity less than:
o 15% in the Columbia Basin (zone 706 and 707)
o 20% in the lower valley zones (zone 703, 704, 705, 708 and 709)
o 25% in the mountainous areas (696, 697, 698, 699, 700, 701, 702, 101)
This is typically (but not always) associated with a dry cold front passage.
These conditions must be verified by at least 2 observation sites (RAWS, METAR, DOT, Agrimet etc)
for 2 consecutive hours. For Idaho Zone 101 the criteria will be at least 2 observation sites
74
for any 3 hours in an 8 hour period. When using observation sites other than RAWS sites wind
speeds will be converted to 10 minute averages.
Special consideration will be given whenever very hot temperatures are combined with very low relative
humidity.
• Hot, Dry, Unstable: High Haines Index of 6
combined with low relative humidity, typically 15% or below.
• Strong winds: Winds that will overcome
the environment no matter what the relative humidity.
• An Unusually Unstable Atmosphere: This would be associated
with a strong thermal trough which typically forms along the east slopes of the Washington
Cascades in conjunction with 850-700 vertical temperature change greater than 15°C. This
Watch or Warning criteria is only good for PSA C1 which is the Central Cascade zones 696,
697, 698, and Cascade valley zones 704, 705.
The issuance of Red Flag Warnings will take into account fuel conditions, and will be coordinated with land
management agencies and other applicable fire weather offices. Typically when 1000 hour fuels are at or below
11%, 100 hour fuels are at or below 8% and Live Fuels at or below 120%.
SPOT FORECASTS
Detailed instructions for completing the Spot Request Form and access links are available on our Fire Weather
Web page in the upper left hand corner or at:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/wrh/UsersSpotGuide2019_2.0.pdf
Valid times for spot forecasts will be twelve hours from forecast issuance.
The spot forecast request web page available on the Spokane fire weather web page at:
https://www.weather.gov/spot/request/
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GEOGRAPHICAL AREA DESCRIPTIONS
The National Weather Service Office in Spokane has fire weather forecast responsibility for protected lands in
the northern and central part of eastern Washington and the northern and central Idaho Panhandle. Exceptions
are the Blue Mountains area, the Yakama Indian Reservation, and portion of the Southeast Department of
Natural Resources (DNR) protected lands. Forecasts for these areas are handled out of the National Weather
Service office in Pendleton (see zone descriptions below).
WFO Spokane’s eastern Washington fire weather area is divided into five districts. In addition, these forecast
districts are subdivided into fifteen fire weather zones. See the map for general locations of districts and zones
for eastern Washington.
Central District:
This district has three zones. Zone 696, Zone 697, and Zone 705. This district extends from Mission Ridge
north to Sawtooth Ridge, and from the Cascade crest east to the Columbia River. It includes the northern part
of the Wenatchee NF and Lake Chelan National Recreation Area. Lightning frequency averages around 10-15
storm-days per season. The Cascade rain shadow is very pronounced across this district with annual rainfall
totals near 100 inches along the crest to 10 inches or less along the Columbia River. Winds tend to be stronger
and more persistent with more pronounced day to day weather changes. These zones are typically impacted by
marine pushes. This district contains some of the highest fire hazard areas in the Pacific Northwest.
Northern District:
This district has five zones. Zone 698 is the higher elevations of the North Cascades. Zones 699 and 702 make
up the Okanogan Highlands and zones 703 and 704 are lower elevations zones within the Okanogan and
Methow Valleys. This district extends across the north part of eastern Washington from the Cascade crest to
the Columbia River on the east. It includes the Okanogan NF and three ranger districts from the Colville NF
(Tonasket, Republic, and Three-Rivers). The district also contains land under the protection of Northeast
Department of Natural Resources and Confederated Tribe of the Colville Indians. The marine influence is
minimal in this district compared to the central districts due to its more continental location. Winds are
generally lighter than central districts due to the complex topography. The exception is the Okanogan River
Valley and Methow Valley. These valleys experience more pronounced diurnal wind cycles. Frontal systems
will also channel strong winds through these valleys when aligned. Lightning activity though is greater,
averaging about 15 storm-days per season. Annual rainfall varies from over 60 inches along the Cascade crest
to less than 15 inches in the Okanogan Valley.
Northeast District:
This district has two zones: 700 and 701. The northeast district extends from the Columbia River to the Idaho
border, and south to the Spokane and Little Spokane rivers. It covers the remainder of the Colville NF (Three
Rivers and Newport-Sullivan districts) and The Spokane Tribes of Indians, as well as lands under the
jurisdiction of Northeast DNR. This district is normally wetter than the other districts since it extends into the
western foothills of the Rocky Mountains. The southern portion closer to the Spokane River and in the vicinity
of Deer Park is slightly drier and typically windier with receptive fuels earlier in the fire season. Lightning
frequency is the greatest of any of the districts averaging 15-20 storm-days per season. Annual rainfall varies
from over 60 inches per year near the Canadian Border to less than 20 inches on the south boundary.
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Northern Columbia Basin District:
This district has four zones: 706, 707, 708, and 709. Pendleton weather office has responsibility for a large
portion of Washington State DNR Southeast Region lands, Yakama IA, and DOE Hanford. The southern
boundary follows county lines west to east across Grant and Adams Counties then bends south into the foothills
of the Blue Mountains including eastern portions of Columbia County and finally through northern Garfield and
Asotin Counties. The western part of the district boundary is the Columbia River following the Grant and
Douglas County lines then wraps around Douglas County and traces back east along the Columbia River to the
Spokane and Little Spokane Rivers to Idaho state line. Fuels in this district consist of mainly grass and sage
with areas of mixed conifer developing for the northeast portion of zone 708 around Spokane and Davenport.
Zone 706 mainly consists of the Waterville Plateau and extends east into northern Grant County including
Banks Lake. This zone contains low ridges and coulees along with dry land farming. Zone 707 is also a mix of
grass and sage along with a heavy concentration of irrigated farming. Zone 708 spans from dry grass and sage
in the heart of the Columbia Basin to the onset of timber around Davenport, Spokane, and Mica Peak. This
zone also includes the Washington Palouse to the south. Dry land farming is common throughout this zone.
Zone 709 stretches west to east from Columbia County to Asotin County with the northern boundary following
along the Snake River and southern boundary north of the Blue Mountains. The zone is primarily made up of
grass with a heavy concentration of graze land and dry land farming. Most of the district is at fairly low
elevations between 900 and 2,000 ft. The terrain rises near 3,000 ft or higher in eastern Zone 708 and southern
709. The highest point at Mica Peak is over 5000 feet. Higher elevations also exist on the Waterville Plateau.
For example, Badger Mountain near Waterville is at 4,221 feet. Annual rainfall ranges from less than 10 inches
in zone 707 to over 20 inches in eastern portions of 708. These are the some of the warmest and driest districts.
Winds in some areas can be very strong. Lightning activity is the least of the districts, averaging about 6 storm-
days per season.
Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle District:
This District is part of Region 1 and has one zone. Northern and Central Idaho Panhandle Zone 101 - Northern
and Central Idaho Panhandle. This zone includes...Idaho Panhandle National Forests, Coeur d’Alene Tribes of
Indians, and Idaho State protected lands in the following counties: Boundary, Bonner, Kootenai, Benewah,
Shoshone, and the northern part of Latah County where a part of the St. Joe District resides. Zone 101 is broken
into three (3) separate zones the Northern zone, Central zone and Southern zone. The valleys receive over 20
inches of annual rainfall while over 60 inches can fall on the peaks. This area averages 12-15 thunderstorm
days per season.
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Spokane Fire Weather Forecast Zones
NWS Spokane
NFDRS
Station Index
ZONE
NAME
TYPE
WIMS
ID
OWNER
LAT
LON
ELEV
696
Viewpoint
R
452128
USFS
47.85
-120.87
3760
696
Camp 4
R
452132
USFS
48.02
-120.23
3773
ZONE #
ZONE NAME
696
East Washington Central Cascades
697
East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area
698
East Washington North Cascades
699
Okanogan Highlands & Kettle Mountains
700
Selkirk Mountains of Northeast Washington
701
Foothills of Northeast Washington
702
Colville Reservation
703
Okanogan Valley
704
Methow Valley
705
Foothills of Central Washington Cascades
706
Waterville Plateau
707
Western Columbia Basin
708
Eastern Columbia Basin - Palouse - Spokane Area
709
Lower Palouse - Snake River
78
696
Dry Creek
R
452134
USFS
47.73
-120.54
3661
697
Stehekin
R
452121
NPS
48.34
-120.72
1230
698
Leecher
R
452020
USFS
48.25
-120
5019
698
First Butte
R
452006
USFS
48.62
-120.11
5500
698
Douglas Ingram Rdg
R
452035
USFS
48.12
-120.1
3460
699
Iron Mountain
R
452512
USFS
48.56
-118.62
4325
699
Lost Lake
R
452029
USFS
48.87
-119.06
3760
699
Peony
R
452038
USFS
48.59
-119.21
3600
699
Brown Mountain Ochd
R
452514
USFS
48.54
-118.69
3210
699
Owl Mountain
R
452513
USFS
48.94
-118.3
4400
699
Lane Creek
R
452511
USFS
48.61
-118.28
4500
700
Pal Moore Orchard
R
452915
USFS
48.39
-117.43
3120
700
Tacoma Creek
R
453413
USFS
48.49
-117.43
3300
700
Little Pend Oreille
R
453416
FWS
48.27
-117.43
2020
700
Deer Mountain
R
453412
USFS
48.8
-117.45
3300
700
Flowery Trail
R
453145
USFS
48.3
-117.41
2680
700
Teepee Seed Orchard
R
453414
USFS
48.66
-117.48
3280
701
Kettle Falls
R
452916
NPS
48.61
-118.12
1310
701
Wellpinit
R
452918
BIA
47.88
-118.1
2240
701
Big Blue
R
452919
BLM
48.01
-118.02
3400
701
Arcadia Orchards
R
453507
BLM
47.91
-117.39
2050
702
Nespelem
R
452009
BIA
48.21
-119.02
1782
702
Gold Mountain
R
452510
BIA
48.18
-118.49
4636
703
Oroville
R
452039
BLM
48.96
-119.49
1360
703
Kramer
R
452040
BIA
48.27
-119.52
2720
703
Spectacle Lake
R
452043
BLM
48.83
-119.51
1825
703
Aeneas
R
452001
DNR
48.74
-119.62
5185
704
NCSB
R
452030
USFS
48.43
-120.14
1650
705
Entiat
R
452138
USFS
47.73
-120.24
2825
706
Douglas
R
452601
BLM
47.62
-119.9
2530
707
Saddle Mtn
R
452701
FWS
46.69
-119.69
650
707
Othello (Columia NWR)
R
453102
BLM
46.88
-119.32
855
708
Spokane BLM QD#1
R
BLM
47.54
-118.56
2100
708
Spring Canyon
R
453002
NPS
47.93
-118.93
1340
708
Escure
R
453601
BLM
47.07
-117.98
1725
708
Turnbull Wildlife
R
453506
FWS
47.41
-117.53
2250
709
79
101
Bonners Ferry
R
100101
USFS
48.72
-116.29
2310
101
Magee Peak
R
100425
USFS
47.89
-116.31
4856
101
Fish Hook
R
100421
USFS
47.86
-115.91
4700
101
Hoodoo
R
100208
USFS
48.05
-116.79
2270
101
Lines Creek
R
100424
USFS
48.15
-116.29
5120
101
Nuckols
R
100423
USFS
47.54
-115.97
4000
101
Priest Lake
R
100204
USFS
48.6
-116.96
2600
101
Saddle Pass
R
100107
USFS
48.98
-116.79
5120
80
Predictive Services
2024 Northern Rockies Annual Operating Plan
PREDICTIVE SERVICES – SERVICES AND RESPONSIBILITIES
Predictive Services is a decision support unit for federal, state, and local land management
agencies for operational and strategic utilization of wildland fire resources. Predictive Services
accomplishes this through analysis of weather and climate, fuels, fire danger, fire activity and
behavior. The products and services from Predictive Services support the proactive management
of wildland fire with an eye toward safety, cost containment, efficiency and ecosystem health.
The Northern Rockies Predictive Services Unit (PSU) is hosted by the Northern Rockies
Coordination Center, in the Aerial Fire Depot complex, in Missoula, Montana. The PSU provides
daily, medium-range, and long-range fire weather, fire danger, and resource outlooks for use in
tactical and strategic planning. These outlooks complement forecast products provided by the
National Weather Service.
As part of the Smoke Management Unit for the Idaho/Montana Airshed Group, Predictive Services
meteorologists in the Northern Rockies coordinate forecast efforts for smoke management March
through May and September to November.
Weather and fuel trends across the Northern Rockies are tracked using 18 Predictive Service
Areas (PSAs) which are geographic areas of similar climate based on statistical correlation of
RAWS data.
NRCC >>> Predictive Services >> Fuels / Fire Danger > Predictive Service Areas (PSAs) (nifc.gov)
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A. Operational Support
Northern Rockies Predictive Services products can be found on the Northern Rockies Coordination
Center’s website (https://gacc.nifc.gov/nrcc), in the Predictive Services tab in the upper left corner.
From there, Intelligence, Weather, Fuels/Fire Danger, and Outlooks sections will expand into their
own pages.
1. 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Outlook
The 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Outlook addresses the probability of new large fires for each
Predictive Services Area (PSA) across the Northern Rockies for each of the next 7 days. The outlook
will identify significant fire potential in a 3-category scale based on ERCs and 100-hour fuel moisture
forecasts. Fire triggers (i.e., lightning, wind, etc.) will be incorporated to refine the potential on
individual days.
The outlook is available 365 days a year and will be updated daily as staffing permits.
Northern Rockies 7-Day Significant Fire Potential (nwcg.gov)
2. Northern Rockies Fire Environment Pages
Predictive Services will maintain an ArcGIS Online Portfolio of fire environment information.
It will include summaries of expected fire behavior during wildfire season. Similar
information will be available on the text portion of the 7-Day Significant Fire Potential
outlook.
The Daily Fire Weather Maps depicting of the fronts and weather across the CONUS is
available on the Northern Rockies Coordination Center Website.
3. Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook (Monthly)
The Monthly Fire Potential Outlook is a broader, more general assessment of weather,
climate, and fuels conditions across the area. It incorporates climate trends, potential
weather, and fuel conditions and trends to make long-term predictions of impacts on fire
business. Outlooks will focus on potential for large fire activity and time frames that will impact
resource availability and mobilization relative to normal fire business for the time of year. The
Monthly outlook will be issued on the first day of each month by the Predictive Services at
NIFC, with all of the 10 Geographic Areas (GACCs) contributing their outlooks with the same
general format. The Northern Rockies text section is embedded within the National Outlook.
4. Seasonal Fire Potential Outlook
The Seasonal Outlook is similar to the Monthly, except for a longer time period. This outlook attempts
to predict the overall character of the upcoming fire season relative to a normal season (based on 5 to 10
82
year historical averages). The Seasonal outlook is issued in the late winter or early spring prior to the
onset of the fire season, and is updated as needed. Update times are not fixed but depend on such factors
as winter snowpack, onset and progress of snow melt, weather trends, fuels condition and trends, etc.
A web briefing with imagery/narration of the Seasonal Outlook is also available from the
NRCC site.
5. Smoke Monitoring Unit (SMU) Support
During the Spring (March 1 – May 31) and Fall (September 1-November 30) burning seasons the
Predictive Services meteorologists at the Smoke Management Unit compile data and provide forecast
meteorological conditions and smoke dispersion on a daily basis Monday through Friday. Unless
unusual conditions suggest an update is appropriate, weekend forecasts after Friday are generally not
provided.
Predictive Services meteorologists post the smoke dispersion forecast by airshed to an Internet-based
Airshed Management System by 9:00 am Mountain Time. In addition to daily smoke dispersion
forecast information, the Meteorology/Dispersion Discussion helps burners identify the next window
of opportunity so they may plan accordingly.
https://mi.airshedgroup.org/posts/meteorology/
6. Web Briefings
There will be web briefings posted 3 times a week during smoke forecasts season, and 3 times a week to 7
days a week during fire season depending on NRCC needs. This briefing is on the Weather page on the
NRCC Predictive Services homepage.
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7. Remote Automated Weather Stations (RAWS)
The NR Predictive Services meteorologists will be a resource on a number of topics related to
RAWS and Fire Danger settings. Please contact them regarding:
new stations
numbers for the Weather Information Management System (WIMS)
data quality concerns
NFDRS output questions
If they are not able to answer your question, they will forward on to the appropriate expert.
8. Land Management Liaisons
Predictive Services meteorologists will act as a liaison on issues regarding weather, climate, fuels,
and fire danger between land management agency partners and service providers in the Northern
Rockies. These include the NWS, fire management units and committees, and the research
community.
During the core fire season, weekly Fire and Fuels Status updates are provided each Wednesday,
by noon MDT.
https://gacc.nifc.gov/nrcc/predictive/fuels_fire-danger/NorthernRockiesFireandFuelStatus.pdf
84
9. Fire Danger Monitoring and Analysis
Northern Rockies Predictive Services meteorologists monitor fire weather and National Fire
Danger Rating System (NFDRS 16) components from a number of key stations in Idaho,
Montana, Wyoming, and North Dakota and South Dakota.
ERC, 1000-hr fuel moisture, 100-hr fuel moisture and Burning Index graphs are generated
according to Predictive Service Areas (PSAs), which are geographic areas of similar
climate/fuels based on statistical correlation of RAWS data.
•
For geographic comparison we are using Fuel Model Y and Fuel Model V, depending on
applicability. ERC and 1000-hr fuel moisture are stable indexes that do not jump around
from day-to-day, whereas 100-hr fuel moisture is more variable. All are good for
monitoring the fire season.
https://gacc.nifc.gov/nrcc/predictive/fuels_fire-danger/PSAmap.htm
10. Monitoring, Feedback, and Improvement of Fire Weather Information
Land management agencies will monitor all sources of fire weather information to ensure quality,
consistency, and applicability. When significant issues arise, Predictive Services will address the
issue with the service provider to enhance awareness and to work toward an appropriate solution.
Predictive Services integrates advanced technology into analytical and prediction systems for use
in fire management planning and operations. This will include regional numerical modeling, weather
and fuels data assimilation and dissemination, and continued research and development in fire
meteorology.
11. Incident Response
Predictive Services meteorologists will collaborate as needed with the local NWS forecast offices,
Incident Meteorologists (IMETs), Air Resource Advisors (ARAs), and NOAA’s Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) to maintain GACC- wide forecast message consistency.
12. Instruction
Predictive Services assists with the course development and instruction of NWCG and local
courses including:
S-series (S-190, S-290, S-390, S-490), Smoke Management, Prescribed Burning (RX-Series),
and Annual Fire Refresher Training (RT-130).
13. Contact Information
NR Rockies Predictive Services Meteorologists
